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Is a hyperactive PiS a more effective opposition?
  Posted on 4 Thu, Oct 2012, with tags:
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No one can accuse Poland's largest opposition party of sitting back lately.

Law and Justice (PiS) started last week with a high-profile economic debate it organized to discuss the problems facing Poland's economy. It then spent the rest of the week energetically lambasting the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk for what it deems the mishandling of the aftermath of the 2010 Smolensk catastrophe, which killed PiS co-founder and then-President Lech Kaczyński along with 95 others.

Even over the weekend PiS didn't take a break, organizing instead a 50,000-strong protest march alongside the controversial but influential Father Tadeusz Rydzyk and the legendary Solidarity trade union.

The march was titled “Wake Up Poland.”

Here's our PM

On Monday PiS was at it again, unveiling its surprise candidate for prime minister, Piotr Gliński, a sociology professor and not even a member of the party.

This comes despite the fact that parliamentary elections are three years away. Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of PiS, has also said his party will soon call a no-confidence vote against the government of Donald Tusk and is planning to announce its shadow cabinet.

As an intelligent man, Mr Gliński must know he will never become the Prime Minister of Poland. And so does PiS. So what's the point then?

In theory, the Gliński candidacy could benefit PiS politically.

First, Mr Kaczyński knows he is deeply unpopular with Poles and is constantly at the top of the rankings of the most distrusted politicians in the country.

Although he has guru-like status among his supporters, roughly a third of the electorate, the rest of the country doesn't think much of him and is very unlikely to vote for him. Mr Kaczyński thus seems to be saying to Poles: “Don't worry, even if my party wins, you won't have me as prime minister.”

This could, again in theory, help PiS at the polls come 2015 by, for example, weakening the turnout for the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party, which wins elections largely due to the anti-Kaczyński vote and not because it is popular itself.

Second, PiS is often derided as the party of the uneducated and frustrated. Presenting a professor as a candidate for prime minister could bring them more support among the conservative-minded intelligentsia. Also, those who are fed up with PiS's highly aggressive rhetoric could take to the calm professor.

Where's the consistency?

But the plan has serious flaws.

First of all, PiS still makes it too easy for its political opponents to caricature it, due to radical moves such as involvement in controversial marches like the one last weekend.

Even conservative-minded members of the intelligentsia must cringe at the sight of a major politician like Mr Kaczyński marching alongside Father Rydzyk, who has made several xenophobic and anti-Semitic statements in the past.

Pop singers need to have a cohesive image; so do politicians. You can't be street one day and play posh the next without getting people all confused about who you really represent and what you really are.

Secondly, observing Mr Kaczyński leaves you in no doubt as to his ambitions to play the alpha-male role. Before the 2005 parliamentary elections he promised that if his brother Lech was elected president, he would not become PM even if his party won the vote.

Both Lech Kaczyński and PiS did win. And although Jarosław Kaczyński initially installed Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, who was obscure at the time, as PM, he removed him a year later despite his immense popularity among Poles. So who can really believe that this time will be different?

That said, PiS does seem to have sharpened its game somewhat recently. That is good, since it should keep the current government on its toes. But “believability” is Mr Kaczyński's biggest problem. Most Poles just don't believe anything he does or says. Voters tend to attribute dishonorable and dishonest intentions to those they dislike and the opposite to those they do like.

Until Jarosław Kaczyński finds a way to make Poles like him more, he will remain as far from the prime minister's seat as Mr Gliński.

 

 

 

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