In an interview with Onet.pl published over the weekend, Law and Justice (PiS) party leader Jarosław Kaczyński said he now “has a feeling that [my twin brother] Lech Kaczyński was murdered.”

This came just before the second anniversary of the April 10, 2010 plane crash in Smolensk which claimed the life of then-President Lech Kaczyński and 95 others, including many of the top military commanders of the Polish armed forces. Although Mr Kaczyński later added that he “could not be certain” that it had been an assassination, his message was clear.

Mr Kaczyński has now whole-heartedly joined the conspiracy theorists who believe the late president was murdered on the orders of the Kremlin. What's more, 18 percent of Poles agree that Lech Kaczyński was assassinated while 32 percent say that both the Polish and Russian governments are “hiding the truth” about the Smolensk catastrophe, according to an April poll carried out by Gazeta Wyborcza.

An assassination is meant to achieve something

This poll results show that Jarosław Kaczyński and his Law and Justice party have been at least partially successful in propagating the view that the Polish government, led by Mr Kaczyński's main political rival, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, directly or indirectly helped cause the death of the late president.

The question is, does Mr Kaczyński really believe this? In my opinion, the PiS leader does not really believe that his brother was assassinated. Not because the current head of the Kremlin is not capable of ordering an assassination, since there seems to be ample evidence to the contrary, but because even the most far-seeing political analyst would be hard-put to find any tangible benefits for the Russian government from liquidating the late Polish president.

He was not in any way a threat to the Kremlin or its policies and was far too minor a geo-political player to warrant assassination in such a spectacular fashion. The Russian security services know subtler methods of handling such matters when the need arises.

Jarosław Kaczyński is no fool. He is aware of all this so then why is he suggesting something he doesn't believe in? Well, first of all, because of those 32 percent of Poles who believe the Polish and Russian governments are hiding the truth.

The Smolensk catastrophe is an emotional chain that holds many conservative voters in Poland together and he who gets to dominate the Smolensk narrative gets the ear of those Poles. When asked about the most important events in post-communist Poland in an opinion poll, PiS supporters placed the Smolensk catastrophe in second place, after the death of John Paul II and ahead of Poland's accession to the EU. Mr Kaczyński is thus pandering to his electorate with the assassination rhetoric.

Politics, but not only ...

As I mentioned on this blog a few weeks ago, Mr Kaczyński is also battling to keep his supremacy on Poland's right. He has now lost six elections in a row and thus some are questioning his ability to lead Poland's conservatives to victory. His former number two, Zbigniew Ziobro, announced the inauguration of his own political party Solidarna Polska Zbigniewa Ziobro, last month. Mr Kaczyński wants to make sure all the available emotional and political “benefits” deriving from the Smolensk catastrophe accrue to him and him only.

However, one should definitely not discard the real emotions which Mr Kaczyński must feel regarding the catastrophe. I think he does believe that Mr Tusk is indirectly responsible for his twin brother's death by having done everything to belittle Lech Kaczyński's presidency when he was alive and as a consequence not providing the April 10 delegation with the security befitting a head of state.

All this means more negative emotions in Polish politics and even less chance of Poland's two major parties, Donald Tusk's Civic Platform and and Mr Kaczyński's PiS, being able to work together on any kind of political initiative.

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Bell & Ross Collection Instrument BR 02 Watches : TITLE, SITE_TAGLINE

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