The latest polls clearly show that the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party has been seriously damaged by the mistakes it has made since the beginning of 2012.
A February SMG KRC poll has PO with 27 percent support, down 6 percentage points from January. The opposition Law and Justice (PiS) polled at 23 percent (+1).
Third was Palikot's Movement (RP) with 17 percent (+3) followed by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with 10 percent support (+2) and the junior coalition partner the Polish Peoples' Party (PSL) with 6 percent support (-3).
A TNS OBOP poll, also carried out in February, was even more negative for PO, putting support for that party at 28 percent (9 percentage points less than in January), with PiS snapping at their heels with 26 (+4) percent.
Three times unlucky
PO has suffered three PR catastrophes this year. The first was the poorly-executed and controversial prescription-drugs reform which came into force on January 1 this year, arousing anger, frustration and confusion among doctors, pharmacists and patients alike. The fiasco was well-publicized and was a terrible start to the year for the ruling party.
Then came the ACTA treaty palaver, as internet users from across the country protested against what they perceive to be a bill that will introduce too many restrictions on the internet. Here, the loudest protests came from a group which has for years been a key electorate for PO – the urban youth.
The latest problem for the government is the chaos surrounding the opening of the newly-built National Stadium in Warsaw. A fixture that was supposed to officially inaugurate the stadium has been postponed several times. There are complaints that not everything is up to standard in the stadium, which cost zł.2 billion to build.
Knowledge gap
Sports Minister Joanna Mucha has been derided in the press recently for exhibiting a rather limited knowledge of the field she is supposed to be overseeing. She recently asked publicly who had “decided on” the two soccer teams that were due to play in Poland's Supercup.
Journalists had to point out to the minister that it is the Ekstraklasa league winner and the Polish cup winner that play for the Supercup, rather than teams that had been “decided” by someone.
All these events have served to seriously dent the image PO has so carefully cultivated in recent years – namely that it is a party of highly-competent, knowledgeable professionals.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who openly admits to valuing pragmatism over ideology, has had one simple message for Poles in recent years: That while PO politicians may not be the stuff of voters' dreams, and may not be statesmen or outstanding individuals, they are pragmatic and much more competent and professional than any of their political opponents.
Up until now, a large number of Poles have bought into PO's narrative, but in recent weeks its “professional” image has received a series of heavy blows.
The real cause of PO's problems
But there is a more important explanation as to why PO is getting so much bad press these days. It's because the “PiS vaccine” is starting to wear off.
It is no secret that the majority of the opinion-forming media in Poland are dead set against the idea of the biggest opposition party, the conservative and nationalistic PiS, coming back to power.
The mere thought of Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieving this is anathema to much of Poland's cultural and business elite.
And so while there was a parliamentary election on the horizon and even a slight possibility that PiS might regain power, criticism of PO was muted in many Polish media outlets.
The notion that “criticizing PO only strengthens PiS” was verbalized by some well-known publicists as a valid reason to refrain from criticizing the ruling party and focus instead on hammering away at PiS.
This process is what one PO-friendly publicist has described as “injecting the public with the PiS vaccine.”
But right now, there are no elections for at least three years and the prospect of a PiS return to power now seems so distant and abstract that it can no longer serve as a means of rallying the troops for the ruling party.
Gloves are off
That's also why the gloves are off, at least for now, regarding the media's attitude towards PO.
Frustrations about the ruling party, once discussed only within journalistic circles, are now being formulated in newspapers, on TV and on the radio. The effects of this are evident in the recent polls.
Prime Minister Tusk can react in one of two ways.
He can decide that his government and party need to be jolted into action, and bring out the whip.
Or he can say to himself “what the hell? ... let the establishment media make all the noise they want … they still don't have any alternative to PO, so when election time comes again, they'll be the ones scrambling to improve our image with the public and bringing out that PiS vaccine once again.”
It would be much better if Mr Tusk were to choose the first option as his ministers, in an effort to keep their jobs, would be likely to make fewer mistakes and govern more efficiently.
But if the PM chooses to wave away the criticism currently targetted at his government, then his ministers will continue to be complacent due to the lack of pressure from above. And the mistakes will continue.
