The 16 MPs and one senator who formed the new parliamentary club “Solidarna Polska” (Solidarity Poland, roughly translated) have now been officially expelled from Law and Justice (PiS). This was always going to happen after the former PiS politicians decided to create their own parliamentary club in response to the expulsion of their colleagues, MEPs Zbigniew Ziobro, Jacek Kurski and Tadeusz Cymański from PiS.
“In this situation, we are left with no choice but to build a modern center-right political party,” said Arkadiusz Mularczyk, head of the new parliamentary club, after the decision was announced.
At least two recent voter polls have indicated that PiS has lost roughly a third of the 30 percent support it enjoyed in the October 9 parliamentary elections. This likely means its electorate has become disoriented by the shake-ups in the party and could be up for grabs by a new political entity.
The question is, would those voters like to see a new right-wing party which is more centrist than PiS? And if that is the case, will the former justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, who would presumably head the new party, be a credible poster-boy for such a political grouping?
Hardly the voice of moderation
Up until now, Mr Ziobro has not been associated with moderation. In fact, he is accused by more than a few of having abused his powers when he was justice minister, in his bid to be seen as the Polish Giulianni – a fearless warrior in the fight against crime and corruption.
One of the moments he is most remembered for happened during a press conference when he was justice minister. Mr Ziobro announced then that a cardiologist, Dr Garlicki, who had just been arrested on corruption charges would never have the chance to “deprive anyone of their life again.”
This came before Dr Garlicki had even been in court regarding accusations made against him of medical negligence that lead to a patient's death. Suffice it to say, the doctor has since then never been found guilty of “depriving” anyone of their life.
There was also the case of Barbara Blida, a former leftist minister who reportedly committed suicide while the police were attempting to arrest her on corruption charges. This happened on Mr Ziobro's watch as minister and however blameless he might be for that tragedy, a large part of public opinion see Ms Blida's death as a direct consequence of Mr Ziobro's heavy-handed tactics. It will be hard for Zbigniew Ziobro to change the picture of a ruthless radical that many Poles have of him.
It's crowded here
Looking at it from the tactical side, the ruling Civic Platform (PO) is somewhere in the political center-right, at least most of the time, and even PiS sometimes moves to the center when its leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, feels it is expedient to do so.
So there just doesn't seem much space out there for a new center-right party. The other option would be for any new party to move to the right of PiS. But how can you move to the right of a party whose leader has said Poland is a “Russian-German condominium,” and that “a Polish politician should know that because of the specific situation of the country, it is often necessary to oppose absolutely everybody around.” That would certainly take some doing.
PM's plans
Meanwhile Prime Minister Donald Tusk is finally set to make his much-awaited speech to parliament this Friday where he will lay out his plans for Poland for the next four years.
Leaked fragments of the speech seem to indicate that he will embark on some long-term reforms regarding, for example, the pension system and raising the retirement age and will take steps to improve the government's finances, such as liquidating some tax-breaks for families and increasing social security payments for sole proprietorships.
But before we panic or celebrate, let's wait until Friday.
