All indications are now that Zbigniew Ziobro, deputy leader of Law and Justice (PiS) and former justice minister, has decided to part ways with PiS and form his own party.

Ever since dropping a bombshell in an interview with Nasz Dziennik where he said that “either PiS becomes a party that will be capable of ruling on its own or it will be necessary to build two political groupings – a centrist one and a nationalist one,” it has been clear that Mr Ziobro, currently an MEP, is openly challenging the authority of PiS's autocratic leader Jarosław Kaczyński.

Most PiS politicians sharply criticized Mr Ziobro for the statements, saying he was acting to the detriment of the unity of the right in Poland. However, a few politicians from the party who have publicly labeled themselves “Ziobrists” are openly supporting the former justice minister, setting the scene for a showdown in the party.

Not backing down

At a PiS parliamentary caucus meeting held after Mr Ziobro's controversial statements, Mr Kaczyński seemed to retaliate by humiliating his deputy, refusing his request to address the party members present.

Mr Ziobro's next move was to write a letter (which the press later got hold of) to the PiS leader asking him to “restrain prominent politicians from PiS who are attacking me and other colleagues for saying that PiS can change and win.”

The MEP added that “PiS is not just our own party … it is the hope of millions of Poles who want change. I appeal to you that together we fulfill those hopes,” adding that there is need for “the courage for internal change in order to make victory possible.”

It's an open secret that Mr Ziobro made the letter available to the media, and that he chose to do so shows clearly that Mr Kaczyński was not actually who the letter was written for. Instead, the real addressee was public opinion, or to be more precise, conservative opinion.

Mr Ziobro knows very well that his career in the party is likely over, since Mr Kaczyński doesn't tolerate members of his party publicly disagreeing with, or even subtly questioning, his leadership.

What he is aiming to do now is convince conservative voters that he was only trying to point out the best path to victory, and that in return he was being blasted by Mr Kaczyński's sycophants.

And with the phrase “[PiS is] not just our own party,” Mr Ziobro sent the message to voters that one of the party's founding fathers was being pushed out of the party simply for speaking out in what he believed was the best interest of the party, and the right in general.

The ball is now in Kaczyński's court

So what now? Mr Kaczyński has two options.

The first is simply to kick Mr Ziobro out of the party now and end the matter.

The best-case scenario for Mr Kaczyński in that case would be that conservative voters who remember the political scene in the 1990s – when the right was fragmented and weak – would indeed blame Mr Ziobro for threatening conservative unity and would be happy to see the PiS leader give him the boot.

The worst-case scenario is that since PiS has now lost six consecutive elections, rightist voters might think Mr Ziobro was on to something, and that some might switch their support to him as someone willing to do everything for “the cause” to prevail.

Mr Kaczyński's second option is to do nothing: no reply, no statement, just silence.

If he were to choose this path, the best outcome for Mr Kaczyński would be that with time the media would bore of Mr Ziobro's criticism, the matter would die down and the deputy leader could be quietly sidelined until he quits the party in frustration.

The worst outcome for Mr Kaczyński under this scenario would be if Mr Ziobro finds a way to keep the media interested in the issue, leading to months of speculation as to whether PiS will or will not break up. It could also embolden other critics in the party to speak up against the PiS leader.

Can Zizou succeed?

Right now it's simply a matter of time till Mr Ziobro, referred to as Zizou in the party, is no longer a member of PiS. But could he succeed with his own party? That would be a tall order. Many well-known politicians have left PiS to form their own parties, to no success.

Mr Kaczyński is more than just a politician to many on the right. He is a guru, a symbol. PiS is built around him like many churches are built around charismatic pastors. Mr Ziobro, although very popular with nationalist and ultra-conservative voters, doesn't have that kind of magnetic personal quality. He's like the deacon who is well-versed in Scripture, but not particularly inspiring.

On the other hand, all indications are that Mr Ziobro will be supported by someone who does have a guru-like persona, namely Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, whose Radio Maryja station has roughly a million fans for whom the controversial Toruń-based priest is the next best thing since Jesus.

Father Rydzyk was very disappointed and not a little irritated that Jarosław Kaczyński didn't put his people in prominent positions on PiS's electoral list during the recent parliamentary elections. In effect, few of them made it into the Sejm. For a man who likes to keep his finger on the pulse, that must be quite frustrating.

There could thus be a marriage of convenience between the former justice minister and the charismatic priest who would be the patron of a new ultra-Catholic and nationalist party.

A priest and a PR strategist

Mr Ziobro also has another very useful ally on his side, namely Jacek Kurski, a PiS MEP who is as savvy and Machiavellian a PR strategist as you can hope to find. He has openly supported Zbigniew Ziobro in his recent statements and was likely the one who revealed the now-famous letter to the press.

A few years ago, there was an ultra-conservative, nationalist party on the political scene called the League of Polish Families (LPR). LPR once enjoyed as much as 15 percent support, before its voters were gobbled up by Mr Kaczyński. Father Rydzyk was the spiritual father of LPR. Moreover, one of that party's main strategists – before he left to join PiS – was Jacek Kurski.

On the minus side for Mr Ziobro, he is an MEP now and will be one until 2014. It's hard to imagine how he could build a new party in Poland while based in Brussels. But where there's a will, there's a way.

Whatever happens, PiS will be weakened by losing Zbigniew Ziobro and those who follow him out of the party. Whether they will be weakened only in the short term or in the long term as well, that is another question entirely.