Zbigniew Ziobro, former justice minister and current deputy leader of Law and Justice (PiS), has sparked heated discussion following an interview with Nasz Dziennik in which he said that “either PiS becomes a party that will be capable of ruling on its own or it will be necessary to build two political groupings – a centrist one and a nationalist one – to woo both types of voters and then build a coalition.”

He added that the party had just lost its sixth election in a row and that “without change in PiS, we will continue to lose.”

The words were widely interpreted as a call for the break up of PiS – if only for tactical reasons.

“Zbigniew Ziobro unfortunately crossed the line, talking about the possibility of forming another party. That is unacceptable,” said PiS's Ryszard Czarnecki. Mr Ziobro later denied that he is calling for a break up of PiS, confirming also that he is not calling for the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński to be replaced.

Next moves

The question is: what is Mr Ziobro's game plan?

First of all, it is common knowledge that Jarosław Kaczyński never forgives or forgets public displays of disloyalty. And there is little doubt that he will see Mr Ziobro's comments as disloyal and as a call to arms.

The PiS leader is an absolute authority to most party members and he has also designed the party statute in a manner that makes removing him from his position as party leader pretty much impossible unless he gives his consent. If Mr Ziobro were to leave the party he could count on a maximum of a few dozen MPs (at best) to follow him. Of course, Mr Ziobro is well aware of this and must therefore have a long-term strategy.

A powerful backer

Mr Ziobro seems to have one very significant ally on his side – Father Director Tadeusz Rydzyk, the priest and media mogul who controls newspaper Nasz Dziennik, TV station Trwam, radio station Radio Maryja and a university.

Mr Ziobro made his controversial comments in an interview with Father Rydzyk's newspaper, and knowing the Father Director's penchant for keeping tight control over the content in his media, it is highly unlikely that he didn't receive a blessing for the comments before they were made.

Father Rydzyk's Radio Maryja has over one million loyal listeners, most of whom tend to vote based on their spiritual guider's suggestions. In recent years, the Torun-based priest has backed PiS.

Mr Kaczyński cannot afford to ignore the obvious alliance Mr Ziobro now has with Father Rydzyk and will probably not summarily kick the former justice minister out of the party as he likely would have done otherwise.

He needs the support of Father Rydzyk's followers and is therefore in quite a difficult position. Not reacting at all to Mr Ziobro's comments is not a good idea, as that would strengthen the deputy leader's position and make Mr Kaczyński look weak.

The PiS leader could, of course, try to find a way of punishing Mr Ziobro while not antagonizing an important part of his electorate. Alternatively, he could swallow this insult and save his bite for later. But, again, that risks emboldening other would-be critics.

Whatever happens, Mr Ziobro is absolutely right in saying that without a fundamental change to the way PiS works, it will continue to lose come election time.