The latest SMG/KRC poll shows the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party is backed by 34 percent of the electorate, followed by Law and Justice (PiS) with 29 percent. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) is in third place with 13 percent, Palikot's Movement (RPP) has 6 percent support while the Polish Peoples' Party (PSL) is backed by 5 percent of Poles.
A few weeks ago, it looked like the October 9 parliamentary vote would be a shoo-in for the ruling party. It was just a question of how big the gap would be between PO and its main rivals, according to most observers – including this journalist.
But the dynamics have changed and PO is now on the defensive while PiS seems to be gaining strength. The campaign started well enough for PO with its leader, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, challenging PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and his potential ministers to a series of debates.
Mr Kaczyński twisted and squirmed, doing everything to avoid debating with the prime minister. Of course this looked bad for PiS with many observers crying “chicken.”
Then, Mr Kaczyński embarked on a nationwide tour giving a series of stump speeches instead. And slowly but surely PiS has started to close the gap on PO. Taking into consideration the fact that, historically, PiS has always been undervalued in voter surveys and PO overvalued, a 5 percentage point gap in the polls indicates the two parties could actually be running neck-and-neck, meaning there is a possibility that PiS could win the elections.
Mr Tusk himself now realizes this.
In for a big surprise?
“For many months I have been telling my party colleagues that we are going neck-and-neck [with PiS]. Up until now every ruling party has lost the next elections by a landslide so the situation for us is not bad, but it is an extremely difficult challenge,” said Mr Tusk at a recent press conference, adding that “people could be in for a big surprise” at midnight on October 9.
The PM is no doubt talking up the possibility of a PiS victory in order to mobilize those voters who are not necessarily his party's core electorate but who vote for PO because the thought of Mr Kaczyński coming back to power is simply unacceptable to them. Whether this works or not, we'll find out come election day.
But the last week has not been very good for PO. Its recent campaign ads have been aimed at convincing Poles that a PO government will be able to negotiate the best deal for Poland when it comes to allocation of funds from the EU's 2014-2020 budget, which is currently being hashed out.
This argument, and the prestige (albeit symbolic) of Poland's ongoing presidency of the EU, were supposed to be strong points for the ruling party but the daily dose of negative news from the euro zone has damaged the image of the EU in Poland. It has also planted a seed of uncertainty and anxiety in many Poles and this plays to PiS's advantage
Where has safe Europe gone?
Joining the EU, Poles had expected to now be in a club of stable, predictable and increasingly wealthy countries. But these days, Europe's future isn't looking too bright, with some even suggesting the bloc might be forced to break up. The majority of Poles are therefore not really paying attention to PO's talk of negotiating zł.300 billion for Poland in the next budget.
In times of uncertainty, promises going that far into the future simply don't grab the electorate's attention.
Mr Kaczyński, meanwhile, has employed the same strategy he used during the presidential campaign, namely playing the cool-headed mature statesman. He has toned down his rhetoric and even though he is in essence offering a radical make-over of the nation's socio-economic system, he is doing so without using the incendiary language so often associated with him.“This government has no ideas for Poland, they don't want a strong Poland,” Mr Kaczyński said at a speech in Kraków.
“I am convinced … I know that people are longing for a Poland where there is justice and equal opportunities, we are not promising such a Poland, we are pledging that we will create it,” the PiS leader added.
Artists turning away from PO
PiS also got an important image boost from three legendary Polish musicians last week. In an interview, punk-rock star “Kazik” said he had allowed himself to be “bamboozled” and had taken part in the “anti-PiS hysteria which the media had helped create during the last parliamentary elections in 2007." He also said Jarosław Kaczyński's late brother Lech Kaczyński had been “the best Polish president in the last twenty years.”
Jarosław Kaczyński personally thanked the musician for his comments during a convention speech. Meanwhile, Muniek Staszczyk, leader of the famous rock-band T-Love, said that Mr Kaczyński had been “demonized” by the media in the past.
Another example is “Liroy,” considered to be the Godfather of Polish rap, who said recently that “this government is a joke ... I trusted PO and what did I get? Jackshit … one autumn day [the PM] will get a fucking surprise,” said the rapper.
All this must be very worrying for the PM and his party. Four years ago artists and young people played a big role in his party's victory. Right now, it seems his party has lost its appeal to many in these two groups.
PiS has its Joe Plumber
Remember Joe the Plumber? The guy who engaged then presidential-candidate Barack Obama in a conversation on the campaign trail, accusing him of having ideas that would be bad for the middle classes. The gentleman was then invited to many of the events on the campaign trail of Mr Obama's Republican rival John McCain and became the Republican party's “average-Joe poster boy.”
PiS now has Mr Stanisław Kowalczyk also known as “Pan Paprykarz”(Mr Pepper).
The gentleman, a grower of peppers, spoiled what was meant to be a routine trip for Prime Minister Donald Tusk in August this year when he refused to be sweet-talked by Mr Tusk. In front of live cameras he complained about how he and other farmers in his area had not received any help from the government after gales had ravaged their region.
“How do I live now Mr Prime Minister, how do I live?,” asked Mr Kowalczyk in an emotional voice.
This line was quickly pounced on by the opposition and last week, Mr Kowalczyk was invited to speak at PiS's convention in Kraków where he gave a brilliant performance proving himself to have the acting skills vital to success in politics.
“Artists and professors are constantly being honored and given orders. I have never heard of a farmer receiving an order and food is a fundamental after all,” he thundered to the applause of the crowd.
“They say there are no differences between the city and the country. Well, show me culture centers, tennis courts and closed swimming pools in the country,” he continued. “They [middle-class city dwellers] have good salaries, what are the rest of us? cattle, beasts?”
Mr Pepper will not decide this election but he can help PiS gain rural voters, who will definitely understand the language he is speaking. I stand by what I said last week: That I still don't believe PiS will win this election, but that belief is growing weaker by the day. If PO isn't able to reverse the current dynamics of the campaign, then many Poles may well be in for a big surprise on October 9 just as Donald Tusk predicted.
