In what came as a surprise to many observers, a recent SMG/KRC poll indicated that the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party now edges out the ruling Civic Platform (PO) among young voters (18-24). Members of the youngest group of voters gave PiS 29 percent support, compared to 27 percent for PO.
The third-most popular party among those Polish youth who responded to the survey is the junior coalition partner, the Polish Peoples' Party (PSL), which gained 12 percent support, while the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) was backed by 10 percent.
If the upcoming election were to be decided by the 18-24s, the Movement in Support of Palikot (RPP), the party led by the eccentric Janusz Palikot, would also get into parliament with 7 percent support, the poll indicates.
Among the entire electorate, the poll shows PO with 35 percent support (-3 percentage points from a week ago), PiS at 29 percent (-1), SLD with 10 percent (no change) and PSL at 7 percent (+3).
The poll also shows PiS leading in Poland's rural areas while PO continues to put distance between itself and PiS in cities with more than half-a-million inhabitants, as well as among the well-educated and among the elderly (60+).
Another poll that could cause some head-scratching in the ruling party is a Homo Homini voter survey carried out over the weekend which showed PO with 31 percent support (-3 p.p. from three weeks ago) and PiS snapping at their heels with 29 percent (+4) SLD, meanwhile, had 14 percent and PSL 6.5 percent. Mr Palikot's party, with 4 percent support (+3), is just shy of the 5 percent threshold needed to get into parliament, according to Homo Homini's poll.
What's PO doing wrong?
The polls clearly show one thing. PiS, PSL and RPP are running effective campaigns, while PO is not. Its rather lacklustre convention last Saturday was further evidence of that fact. There, PO revealed its program for the next four years, promising to eliminate Personal Income Tax (PIT) forms; ensure every county has access to broadband internet; introduce competition to the state-run and inefficient National health Fund (NFZ); negotiate over zł.300 billion in EU funds for Poland in the years 2014-2020, and create a special fund from expected shale gas proceeds which would go towards guaranteeing future pensions.
They also promised to reduce the time spent waiting for a building permit from 300 to 100 days and reduce the budget deficit to 48 percent of GDP by 2015.
The ruling party unveiled a rather uninspiring campaign slogan of “We will do more,” an obvious and not terribly clever response to PiS's decidedly pithier slogan of “Poles deserve more.”
At his stump speech during the convention, Prime Minister Donald Tusk started by saying that “a Polish child deserves the kind of future an American or French child has. We will make that so.”
He then went on to play the much-used card of scaring voters about the damage an eventual PiS-led government could do to Poland.
“PiS won't be able to handle that zł.300 billion from the EU. We can't afford to once again allow those who would come and close Poland in a cocoon of distrust,” he said.
“Imagine what would happen to those thousands of roads and highways under construction if our predecessors return to power and decide to stop all those endeavors ... They would close that tap of money, they won't want to spend it because they believe everything must be turned upside down first – they'll want to freeze everything because that's when they feel safest, when nothing is happening,” he added.
But the PM wasn't terribly convincing and didn't really seem to believe in what he was saying himself.
No longer the 'cool' party
Despite the obvious momentum it has on its side, I still don't believe PiS will actually win the elections and such close poll figures will actually serve to mobilize “sleeper” PO voters who might have felt they didn't really need to bother voting as their party was a shoo-in anyway.
The thought of the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński (whom many sincerely detest) actually being close to seizing power will no doubt galvanize them. But Mr Tusk and his party need to rethink their campaign strategy and come up with some better ideas if they don't want to have a nerve-wracking campaign finish on their hands.
The 18-24's were crucial in getting PO elected in 2007 and the ruling party has often portrayed itself as the party of the young, dynamic and well-educated. In comparison PiS has been portrayed as being the party of the old, frustrated and less-sophisticated segment of Polish society.
This new poll shatters that image.
PiS is in front among the young while PO is actually leading among the elderly!
At the beginning of the campaign, it seemed that PiS's refusal to debate with PO politicians would lose them support, but the opposite seems to have been the case. That is both interesting as well as surprising.
It seems Jarosław Kaczyński's strategy of avoiding direct confrontation with PO politicians and instead traveling around the country stumping is working, especially among the 18-24 group which is currently quite disillusioned in Poland as the recent “Młodzi 2011” (a government report on young people in Poland) revealed.
Polish youths have problems getting jobs and when they do they're often employed only on a temporary contract. This means they have no access to credit, which no doubt leaves them feeling frustrated. Not being able to take a full part in the consumption binge must be particularly annoying to a group that is very consumption-oriented, as the “Młodzi 2011” survey pointed out. Add to that the gloomy economic mood, and one expects they must be thinking their perspectives aren't so bright.
Anti-establishment mood
PiS and RPP are parties with radical leaders whose messages convey strong emotions. PO, on the other hand, might just have gotten too wishy-washy for the young these days, too comfortable and establishment-oriented. Mr Palikot, a former PO member and darling of the youth, has no doubt stolen some young voters from his former party. It seems many Poles are in an anti-establishment mood nowadays and are not finding the status-quo, which PO represents, much to their liking.
However, overall, PO is still much slicker than PiS when it comes to political tactics and the perception game, so they will likely come up with a strong counter-offensive. For now though, the “we-might-not-be-so-great but do-you-really-want-these-nutters-running things?” strategy simply isn't working.
PO says it will “do more” after winning the elections but first is needs to do more to convince Poles that it is worth re-electing at all.
