Journalists love quotable politicians,
especially the kind who give them single-sentence sound bytes they
can use as ready-made headlines. The more controversial the quote,
the better. Of course, it's bigger news if the quote is from an
important politician who actually influences the course of events. No
one really cares what a back-bencher thinks or says.
But top politicians are usually very
guarded with their words and it's difficult to get them to go on
record as saying something that will make people's eyes pop. But
that's not been the case with Jarosław Kaczyński. The leader of
Poland's biggest opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), has long
been a goldmine for Polish journalists in the hunt for a memorable
line.
Keep talking
When the leader of the biggest
opposition party says that Poland is a Russian-German condominium,
that the death penalty should be reinstated, that Prime Minister
Donald Tusk is more or less a bus-boy for Angela Merkel, then that's
news.
This has been great for Mr Tusk and his
Civic Platform (PO) party. As long as journalists focused on Mr
Kaczyński's often outrageous and outlandish statements, nobody was
paying attention to the PO-led government's shortfalls. For the
media, it was all about quoting Mr Kaczyński, which in turn
encouraged everyone else to comment on the PiS leader's latest
controversial statement.
Golden silence
But in recent weeks, Mr Kaczyński has
remained largely silent and when he has spoken up, he hasn't said
anything remotely memorable. The media needs news, so if Mr Kaczyński
is not supplying it the next most attractive thing is to criticize
the ruling government, which is always guaranteed to attract a reader
or two.
Donald Tusk's best bet now would be to
try to provoke the irritable PiS leader into making a verbal slip-up,
so that the political headlines are not dominated by PO's own
failings. Mr Kaczyński's best bet, meanwhile, would be to remain
largely silent, forcing the media to keep its focus on Mr Tusk's
government. In this case Mr Kaczyński's silence would be truly
golden for him and his party.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his
ruling Civic Platform (PO) party have been taking a hammering in the
polls recently.
A February TNS OBOP survey indicates
that 70 percent of Poles now disapprove of the way the government is
running the country while only 23 percent think it is doing a good
job.
Meanwhile, Mr Tusk himself has a
job-approval rating of just 28 percent, the lowest since he arrived
in office.
The government has been strongly
criticized in the media for the confusion surrounding a
prescription-drug reform implemented in January this year, for
initially supporting the highly-unpopular ACTA treaty and for
controversy regarding the newly-built zł.2 billion National Stadium,
which is said to fall short of the required standard in several
respects.
The PM's proposal to increase the
retirement age to 67 for both men and women has understandably not
won him many friends either.
Mediocre competition
In a competitive political environment,
the ruling party's slip-ups would have caused it to lose a
considerable amount of ground to its rivals. But Poland's political
scene is far from competitive.
Even though many have started to lose
faith in PO, they are by no means turning to the biggest opposition
party, Law and Justice (PiS), which is simply too conservative, too
nationalistic and too aesthetically unpalatable for the majority of
Poles.
According to recent voter surveys, a
few Poles seem to be turning to the other parliamentary opposition
parties, namely the leftist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and
Palikot's Movement (RP).
But those parties are likewise
incapable of wooing over anything close to a majority of voters.
SLD, which ruled Poland between
2001-2005 is mainly remembered for the corruption scandals which
plagued the country during its time in office. The party has not
managed to recover since then and is still not considered trustworthy
and credible by most Poles.
RP, meanwhile, is led by the often
irritating, narcissistic Janusz Palikot, who, while supported by some
12-15 percent of Poles, has the largest negative electorate (45
percent) after PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński.
Mr Palikot is a nihilist, ready to say
or do anything just to be at the center of attention, and most Poles
simply don't take him very seriously.
RP's mix of very socially and
economically liberal views are also unlikely to attract a huge number
of Poles.
A monopoly
All this means that despite all the
disappointment and frustration many Poles feel with PO, they simply
don't see any alternative to the current ruling party and its leader
Donald Tusk.
What's worse, PO politicians are
perfectly aware of this and thus the criticism they are currently
receiving is unlikely to make them step up their game as it would if
they had serious political rivals. Only the PM himself is capable of
jolting his ministers into better performances.
Journalists and political observers can
criticize, lament and lambaste all they want but the truth of the
matter is that in the end, PO can still turn around and say “Ok,
we're useless, but so what?” And honestly speaking, it's difficult
to respond to that.
The latest polls clearly show that the
ruling Civic Platform (PO) party has been seriously damaged by the
mistakes it has made since the beginning of 2012.
A February SMG KRC poll has PO with 27
percent support, down 6 percentage points from January. The
opposition Law and Justice (PiS) polled at 23 percent (+1).
Third was Palikot's Movement (RP) with
17 percent (+3) followed by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with
10 percent support (+2) and the junior coalition partner the Polish
Peoples' Party (PSL) with 6 percent support (-3).
A TNS OBOP poll, also carried out in
February, was even more negative for PO, putting support for that
party at 28 percent (9 percentage points less than in January), with
PiS snapping at their heels with 26 (+4) percent.
Three times unlucky
PO has suffered three PR catastrophes
this year. The first was the poorly-executed and controversial
prescription-drugs reform which came into force on January 1 this
year, arousing anger, frustration and confusion among doctors,
pharmacists and patients alike. The fiasco was well-publicized and
was a terrible start to the year for the ruling party.
Then came the ACTA treaty palaver, as
internet users from across the country protested against what they
perceive to be a bill that will introduce too many restrictions on
the internet. Here, the loudest protests came from a group which has
for years been a key electorate for PO – the urban youth.
The latest problem for the government
is the chaos surrounding the opening of the newly-built National
Stadium in Warsaw. A fixture that was supposed to officially
inaugurate the stadium has been postponed several times. There are
complaints that not everything is up to standard in the stadium,
which cost zł.2 billion to build.
Knowledge gap
Sports Minister Joanna Mucha has been
derided in the press recently for exhibiting a rather limited
knowledge of the field she is supposed to be overseeing. She recently
asked publicly who had “decided on” the two soccer teams that
were due to play in Poland's Supercup.
Journalists had to point out to the
minister that it is the Ekstraklasa league winner and the Polish cup
winner that play for the Supercup, rather than teams that had been
“decided” by someone.
All these events have served to
seriously dent the image PO has so carefully cultivated in recent
years – namely that it is a party of highly-competent,
knowledgeable professionals.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who openly
admits to valuing pragmatism over ideology, has had one simple
message for Poles in recent years: That while PO politicians may not
be the stuff of voters' dreams, and may not be statesmen or
outstanding individuals, they are pragmatic and much more competent
and professional than any of their political opponents.
Up until now, a large number of Poles
have bought into PO's narrative, but in recent weeks its
“professional” image has received a series of heavy blows.
The real cause of PO's problems
But there is a more important
explanation as to why PO is getting so much bad press these days.
It's because the “PiS vaccine” is starting to wear off.
It is no secret that the majority of
the opinion-forming media in Poland are dead set against the idea of
the biggest opposition party, the conservative and nationalistic PiS,
coming back to power.
The mere thought of Jarosław
Kaczyński's party achieving this is anathema to much of Poland's
cultural and business elite.
And so while there was a parliamentary
election on the horizon and even a slight possibility that PiS might
regain power, criticism of PO was muted in many Polish media outlets.
The notion that “criticizing PO only
strengthens PiS” was verbalized by some well-known publicists as a
valid reason to refrain from criticizing the ruling party and focus
instead on hammering away at PiS.
This process is what one PO-friendly
publicist has described as “injecting the public with the PiS
vaccine.”
But right now, there are no elections
for at least three years and the prospect of a PiS return to power
now seems so distant and abstract that it can no longer serve as a
means of rallying the troops for the ruling party.
Gloves are off
That's also why the gloves are off, at
least for now, regarding the media's attitude towards PO.
Frustrations about the ruling party,
once discussed only within journalistic circles, are now being
formulated in newspapers, on TV and on the radio. The effects of this
are evident in the recent polls.
Prime Minister Tusk can react in one of
two ways.
He can decide that his government and
party need to be jolted into action, and bring out the whip.
Or he can say to himself “what the
hell? ... let the establishment media make all the noise they want …
they still don't have any alternative to PO, so when election time
comes again, they'll be the ones scrambling to improve our image with
the public and bringing out that PiS vaccine once again.”
It would be much better if Mr Tusk were
to choose the first option as his ministers, in an effort to keep
their jobs, would be likely to make fewer mistakes and govern more
efficiently.
But if the PM chooses to wave away the
criticism currently targetted at his government, then his ministers
will continue to be complacent due to the lack of pressure from
above. And the mistakes will continue.