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The business of politics
BY Remi Adekoya
Remi Adekoya, WBJ journalist READ MORE

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I was a Boeing 737 Captain and an Aviation Lawyer involved in several accident investigations worldwide. I have read the entire report of the Smolensk Crash and make the following obsevations:- 1 Most aircraft accidents do not have a single 'cause' but many contributory factors. 2 The Smolensk report identifies many shortcomings, namely pilot training, weather, poor airport preparation, poor risk assessment of the airport etc. 3 However one factor surmounting all of these is that the crew continued the descent below the authorised permitted height of 100metres. Had they not done so many of the other factors would have been irrelevant. 4 Air Traffic Control, whether adequate or not, has no relevance to a Captain's decision to descend below operating limits. 5 There is no evidence to suggest that the aircraft was destroyed by anything other than contact, initially by the port wing hitting the trees, and then the catastrophic impact of the whole aircraft with the ground. In relation to the 'conspiracy' theories, if an aircraft 'accident' were to be used to conduct an 'assassination' the method employed would more likely be a bomb, detonated on a timing device, a radio/telephone signal or a barometric switch. Using any of these methods so close to the ground and seconds from landing would risk failure of the objective. To achive success in an assassination involving as many factors as were involved in this crash would require inconceivable co-ordination, including convincing both pilots to commit suicide. Having read this report I conclude that this was no more than a tragic accident resulting from many factors. The fact that an accident results in the death of the President of a country does not prevent it from being an accident. Geoffrey Nicholson
11 Wed, Apr 2012

Hello. Good Day. This is Faisal from Bangladesh. We have a real estate company (3G BUILDING TECHNOLOGY LTD) & we are the registered company of Bangladesh Government. Now we have some projects for build up new building. we have also land in Coxbazer project. As you know, Coxbazer is the largest sea beach in the world. If we build up a resort or any kind of 3 star hotels & sell that project than it will be so profitable business. Dhaka is the capital city & Chittagong is the port city of Bangladesh. Dear Sir as per Bangladesh government announcement, Bangladesh real estate sector is number one rising sector in Bangladesh. Real estate Market of Bangladesh is almost saturated by the thousands of real estate Company which is around Dhaka, Chittagong, Sylhet and some district of Bangladesh but we have not enough money for construction work. We will make per square feet US 38$ & we can sell per square feet US 64$ average (in Dhaka). We are looking for a business partner to increase our business level & we decided that, we will sell some share of our company to investor as a chairman or director. Dear sir many countries investor are invested in our country. Such as 1. China - company name: China Garden City Developers Ltd. 2. America - company name: America Purbanchol city. 3. Japan - company name: Japan Bangladesh Friendship society & etc. I would like you to join me; it is a highly profitable business. Kindly contact me & I can tell you each & everything in detail & we can further go on. Waiting for your answer. With best regards Shekh Md. Faisal. Director. 3G BUILDING TECHNOLOGY LTD. Address: House No- 1010/A Road No- 16 Khilgaon. Dhaka-1219. Bangladesh. Phone: +880 1917 162751, +880 1841 162751. E-mail: info.3gbtl@gmail.com, mdshekhfaisal@gmail.com
8 Wed, Feb 2012

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A quiet Kaczyński spells trouble for Tusk
  Posted on 28 Tue, Feb 2012, with tags:
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Journalists love quotable politicians, especially the kind who give them single-sentence sound bytes they can use as ready-made headlines. The more controversial the quote, the better. Of course, it's bigger news if the quote is from an important politician who actually influences the course of events. No one really cares what a back-bencher thinks or says.

But top politicians are usually very guarded with their words and it's difficult to get them to go on record as saying something that will make people's eyes pop. But that's not been the case with Jarosław Kaczyński. The leader of Poland's biggest opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), has long been a goldmine for Polish journalists in the hunt for a memorable line.

Keep talking

When the leader of the biggest opposition party says that Poland is a Russian-German condominium, that the death penalty should be reinstated, that Prime Minister Donald Tusk is more or less a bus-boy for Angela Merkel, then that's news.

This has been great for Mr Tusk and his Civic Platform (PO) party. As long as journalists focused on Mr Kaczyński's often outrageous and outlandish statements, nobody was paying attention to the PO-led government's shortfalls. For the media, it was all about quoting Mr Kaczyński, which in turn encouraged everyone else to comment on the PiS leader's latest controversial statement.

Golden silence

But in recent weeks, Mr Kaczyński has remained largely silent and when he has spoken up, he hasn't said anything remotely memorable. The media needs news, so if Mr Kaczyński is not supplying it the next most attractive thing is to criticize the ruling government, which is always guaranteed to attract a reader or two.

Donald Tusk's best bet now would be to try to provoke the irritable PiS leader into making a verbal slip-up, so that the political headlines are not dominated by PO's own failings. Mr Kaczyński's best bet, meanwhile, would be to remain largely silent, forcing the media to keep its focus on Mr Tusk's government. In this case Mr Kaczyński's silence would be truly golden for him and his party.

 

 

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PO government increasingly unpopular: so what?
  Posted on 21 Tue, Feb 2012, with tags:
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Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his ruling Civic Platform (PO) party have been taking a hammering in the polls recently.

A February TNS OBOP survey indicates that 70 percent of Poles now disapprove of the way the government is running the country while only 23 percent think it is doing a good job.

Meanwhile, Mr Tusk himself has a job-approval rating of just 28 percent, the lowest since he arrived in office.

The government has been strongly criticized in the media for the confusion surrounding a prescription-drug reform implemented in January this year, for initially supporting the highly-unpopular ACTA treaty and for controversy regarding the newly-built zł.2 billion National Stadium, which is said to fall short of the required standard in several respects.

The PM's proposal to increase the retirement age to 67 for both men and women has understandably not won him many friends either.

Mediocre competition

In a competitive political environment, the ruling party's slip-ups would have caused it to lose a considerable amount of ground to its rivals. But Poland's political scene is far from competitive.

Even though many have started to lose faith in PO, they are by no means turning to the biggest opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), which is simply too conservative, too nationalistic and too aesthetically unpalatable for the majority of Poles.

According to recent voter surveys, a few Poles seem to be turning to the other parliamentary opposition parties, namely the leftist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and Palikot's Movement (RP).

But those parties are likewise incapable of wooing over anything close to a majority of voters.

SLD, which ruled Poland between 2001-2005 is mainly remembered for the corruption scandals which plagued the country during its time in office. The party has not managed to recover since then and is still not considered trustworthy and credible by most Poles.

RP, meanwhile, is led by the often irritating, narcissistic Janusz Palikot, who, while supported by some 12-15 percent of Poles, has the largest negative electorate (45 percent) after PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński.

Mr Palikot is a nihilist, ready to say or do anything just to be at the center of attention, and most Poles simply don't take him very seriously.

RP's mix of very socially and economically liberal views are also unlikely to attract a huge number of Poles.

A monopoly

All this means that despite all the disappointment and frustration many Poles feel with PO, they simply don't see any alternative to the current ruling party and its leader Donald Tusk.

What's worse, PO politicians are perfectly aware of this and thus the criticism they are currently receiving is unlikely to make them step up their game as it would if they had serious political rivals. Only the PM himself is capable of jolting his ministers into better performances.

Journalists and political observers can criticize, lament and lambaste all they want but the truth of the matter is that in the end, PO can still turn around and say “Ok, we're useless, but so what?” And honestly speaking, it's difficult to respond to that.

 

 

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PO slumps in polls as PiS-vaccine wears off
  Posted on 14 Tue, Feb 2012, with tags:
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The latest polls clearly show that the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party has been seriously damaged by the mistakes it has made since the beginning of 2012.

A February SMG KRC poll has PO with 27 percent support, down 6 percentage points from January. The opposition Law and Justice (PiS) polled at 23 percent (+1).

Third was Palikot's Movement (RP) with 17 percent (+3) followed by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with 10 percent support (+2) and the junior coalition partner the Polish Peoples' Party (PSL) with 6 percent support (-3).

A TNS OBOP poll, also carried out in February, was even more negative for PO, putting support for that party at 28 percent (9 percentage points less than in January), with PiS snapping at their heels with 26 (+4) percent.

Three times unlucky

PO has suffered three PR catastrophes this year. The first was the poorly-executed and controversial prescription-drugs reform which came into force on January 1 this year, arousing anger, frustration and confusion among doctors, pharmacists and patients alike. The fiasco was well-publicized and was a terrible start to the year for the ruling party.

Then came the ACTA treaty palaver, as internet users from across the country protested against what they perceive to be a bill that will introduce too many restrictions on the internet. Here, the loudest protests came from a group which has for years been a key electorate for PO – the urban youth.

The latest problem for the government is the chaos surrounding the opening of the newly-built National Stadium in Warsaw. A fixture that was supposed to officially inaugurate the stadium has been postponed several times. There are complaints that not everything is up to standard in the stadium, which cost zł.2 billion to build.

Knowledge gap

Sports Minister Joanna Mucha has been derided in the press recently for exhibiting a rather limited knowledge of the field she is supposed to be overseeing. She recently asked publicly who had “decided on” the two soccer teams that were due to play in Poland's Supercup.

Journalists had to point out to the minister that it is the Ekstraklasa league winner and the Polish cup winner that play for the Supercup, rather than teams that had been “decided” by someone.

All these events have served to seriously dent the image PO has so carefully cultivated in recent years – namely that it is a party of highly-competent, knowledgeable professionals.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who openly admits to valuing pragmatism over ideology, has had one simple message for Poles in recent years: That while PO politicians may not be the stuff of voters' dreams, and may not be statesmen or outstanding individuals, they are pragmatic and much more competent and professional than any of their political opponents.

Up until now, a large number of Poles have bought into PO's narrative, but in recent weeks its “professional” image has received a series of heavy blows.

The real cause of PO's problems

But there is a more important explanation as to why PO is getting so much bad press these days. It's because the “PiS vaccine” is starting to wear off.

It is no secret that the majority of the opinion-forming media in Poland are dead set against the idea of the biggest opposition party, the conservative and nationalistic PiS, coming back to power.

The mere thought of Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieving this is anathema to much of Poland's cultural and business elite.

And so while there was a parliamentary election on the horizon and even a slight possibility that PiS might regain power, criticism of PO was muted in many Polish media outlets.

The notion that “criticizing PO only strengthens PiS” was verbalized by some well-known publicists as a valid reason to refrain from criticizing the ruling party and focus instead on hammering away at PiS.

This process is what one PO-friendly publicist has described as “injecting the public with the PiS vaccine.”

But right now, there are no elections for at least three years and the prospect of a PiS return to power now seems so distant and abstract that it can no longer serve as a means of rallying the troops for the ruling party.

Gloves are off

That's also why the gloves are off, at least for now, regarding the media's attitude towards PO.

Frustrations about the ruling party, once discussed only within journalistic circles, are now being formulated in newspapers, on TV and on the radio. The effects of this are evident in the recent polls.

Prime Minister Tusk can react in one of two ways.

He can decide that his government and party need to be jolted into action, and bring out the whip.

Or he can say to himself “what the hell? ... let the establishment media make all the noise they want … they still don't have any alternative to PO, so when election time comes again, they'll be the ones scrambling to improve our image with the public and bringing out that PiS vaccine once again.”

It would be much better if Mr Tusk were to choose the first option as his ministers, in an effort to keep their jobs, would be likely to make fewer mistakes and govern more efficiently.

But if the PM chooses to wave away the criticism currently targetted at his government, then his ministers will continue to be complacent due to the lack of pressure from above. And the mistakes will continue.

 

 

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