Last week Poland and the United States reached agreement to place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland following nearly two years of negotiations. The timing of the agreement, following fast on the heals of the Russian incursion into Georgia, has many analysts questioning the underlying purpose of the missile shield.

The US administration has always maintained that the interceptors are defensive in nature, intended to block a potential attack from Iran and other “rogue” nations. And until last week so too had the Polish government, but recent pronouncements by President Kaczyński call into question these earlier claims. According to the Polish President, the missile defense treaty strengthens the US obligation to defend Poland in the event of an attack from presumably anywhere, not only based upon NATO membership, but also now in order to defend the missile interceptors themselves. 

The Russians have in turn charged that the missile defense shield is in fact intended to diminish its own nuclear deterrent. And most troubling have threatened to reposition some of their nuclear warheads to target Poland. 

Despite claims to the contrary, it would appear that at least for the Poles the Russian incursion into Georgia provided the missing motivation to conclude the drawn out negotiations with the US administration and sign the missile defense treaty. 

Only time will tell what will be the long term political impact of the missile defense shield on relations between Poland and Russia, not to mention between Russia and the EU as a whole. If the rhetoric on all sides doesn’t begin to tone down, we could very well find ourselves in a new arms race.

-- Paul B. Fogo