The one question that keeps Brussels, and many in Europe, busy these days is who will become the first permanent President of the European Council, and who will serve as its Foreign Minister. There is wild speculation – dozens of names are being bandied about – and Sweden's duo of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, charged with finding the five-legged sheep, keep saying they are “not there yet but in politics three days is practically an eternity.” The final decision is to emerge from an informal dinner of EU leaders in Brussels this Thursday. And then we'll know.

Care to venture a guess, though? With Tony Blair's name pretty much off the table, it seems that what the assembled heads of state and government want for the post is not a strong leader, but a discreet administrator – yet another one. Among the names that are circulating are those of the respective current Prime Ministers of all three Benelux countries. Belgium's Herman Van Rompuy is said to have the best chances, with almost all of the 27 delegations seemingly backing him.

Almost all, that is, as Van Rompuy is thought to have secured the UK's support by overtly giving preference to a British running mate for the post of EU Foreign Minister. Now, with both David Milliband and Lord Peter Mandelson having declined interest, the UK is more likely to support Dutch Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende. In the view of the Brits, Balkenende is less federalist than the Belgian. And federalism is something our friends from across the Channel do not approve of too much.

As recently as this Monday, current EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes said in an FT opinion piece that the right man for the right job ... might be a woman. She got immediate backing from other European women in power, and from Europe's women's rights lobby. Irish President Mary Robinson and Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga are the only women who are more or less official candidates for the job. But while Ireland has a bit of an image problem in Europe, it may be too early to pick the first EU president from a new member state. However, Mrs Vike-Freiberga would probably be a much better choice than some of the Benelux pencil pushers.

It is hard to predict anything in politics, and it is practically impossible to predict anything in European politics. But it is rather likely that either Belgium's Van Rompuy or Balkenende from the Netherlands will on Thursday be able to call himself the first President of Europe. And if Italy's former communist Massimo D'Alema can avert a Polish veto and Romania's outsider candidate Adrian Severin can get the support of his own government, one of those two may well be the next EU Foreign Minister. But then again, as so often happens in Brussels, it may all come out differently.