The draft conclusions, which I was able to consult and which are being discussed by the EU’s heads of state and government as I write this, speak of an envisaged reduction of carbon emissions of up to 95 percent by 2050 (when compared to 1990 levels), at least by developed nations. The EU has already committed to a 30 percent reduction by 2020, but one may ask whether 95 percent isn’t overly ambitious. What is certain is that the “old” EU member states are likely to be asked to make more significant efforts than the “new” member states, and rightfully so. We saw the same scenario emerging from the discussions on targets for 2020, earlier this year.
What is equally interesting to see are the astonishing amounts of money the EU believes will be required to reduce the carbon footprint of the developing world. By 2020, developing countries alone will require €100 billion per year to finance so-called mitigation and adaptation efforts. These efforts are to be funded in part from the budgets of these nations themselves, but largely through the international carbon market and international public finance. The level of international public support, i.e. development aid, is estimated at €22-50 billion per year by 2020.
A number of reflections: At the EU level we are looking at a significant effort. And there is a lot of work that must, or rather can, be done by the “new” member states to catch up. Derogation is likely, and rightfully so, and the burden on Poland and the likes will presumably be lower. Nevertheless, significant public funding will be required (and must be assigned), in particular to bring the Polish energy sector up to speed with international standards, and to achieve real improvements. Poland has the right cards and can become a leader of renewable energy, if it wants to and if the government is ready to create the right framework and provide the right means.
What the above-mentioned figures show is the potential size of the so-called “green” economy. Whereas one can waste a lot of time in dispute over the seriousness of certain climate change arguments, it sometimes simply makes more sense to look at things in a pragmatic way. It is now clearer than ever that there is a very strong political commitment to assign unseen amounts of money to changing the way we produce energy. And this commitment presents visionary entrepreneurs with opportunities to become part of that growing “green” economy. Let’s reminisce for a moment about the gold rushes in the 19th-century Wild West: it was not the gold diggers that made the biggest fortunes, it was those that sold them their spades. More than ever, stay tuned.
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