PLN: Having gone above 3.3 against the USD, and now even above 3.5, completely changes the scenario from a technical perspective. I would now expect the following scenario:
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USD/PLN now has a major support at 3.5 and hence is likely to move higher to 4, then 4.2 and even 4.5 in the near term (a time frame of two months).
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Fundamentally speaking, the CHF/PLN reaching 3.2 has put considerable stress on home loans, and heightens likelihood for defaults on home loans.
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The sharp depreciation in the PLN has also affected businesses.
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With the government doing some verbal intervention and defining the level at which it would intervene (if the EUR/PLN reaches 5); this only tells me that the situation is far more serious than it seems. Interventions have never worked in the long term. Hence, I would expect EUR/PLN to cross 5 in all likelihood.
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It is also rumoured that Mr. Soros is shorting the PLN. If that is true, the signs are ominous for the PLN. However, exporters will benefit.
GBP/USD: I expect the GBP to move higher to around the 1.5 level for now.
EUR/USD: I expect EUR to move higher to 1.3/1.32
USD/JPY: This is much more difficult to analyze. If it holds at 98/100, we can see a sharp drop, otherwise it could go to 105 and even 110.
Gold continues to be a favourite and I see $890 as the price to buy again for a target of $1,050.
