Capital markets have been quite active over the last few weeks, but currency markets have been quite range-bound, with the US dollar losing some of the strength it gained after the crisis hit.
I expect this to be the bottom for the USD's weakness. In fact, I consider this month quite crucial for the USD.
The British pound was again difficult to analyze, due to heavy cross-rate activity particularly against the Japanese yen. However, I would hazard considering the current highs as the top for the GBP and hence a good opportunity to sell.
I would also change my analysis on the USD/JPY and expect it to move to 115. Earlier I have been recommending selling USD/JPY for a target of around 80 yen.
Likewise, for USD/CHF I expect this to be the bottom and hence an upward movement should start.
Having said all of that, a lot will depend on the upcoming Jobless claim numbers and non-farm and unemployment data. If the data is too negative, the USD could go into freefall.
The G20 is one event to watch, but its still far away. Moreover, US policy continues to support a strong USD and hence I do not see how agreement could be reached for another reserve currency.
