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Selling the WSE on the WSE
  Posted on 1 Tue, Dec 2009, with tags: central europe, pge, europe
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So, the Warsaw Stock Exchange won't be taken over by a larger global exchange – at least not this year. Deutsche Börse, the only of three shortlisted companies to make a binding offer for a majority stake, failed to submit an improved bid at the request of Poland, and thus the government's privatization plans have been scuppered, once again.

The privatization of state assets this year is problematic anyway. Though the government desperately needs the income to combat a growing budget deficit, it doesn't want to give up profitable companies for less than they are worth.

It may be that the government is learning a lesson from the hugely successful privatization of PGE late last month. Instead of trying to sell the huge electricity firm to a strategic investor, they floated it on the bourse.

Investors in the bourse – and regular Poles who were attracted to the bourse for the first time by the debut – understood what an important company PGE is, and how successful it can be. A strategic investor would have likely tried to push down the price, looking for a bargain and sensing the government's urgency. With PGE's debut, the Treasury got more than it had hoped for.

Thus, suggestions that the WSE be privatized on the exchange itself are good ones. The WSE is in a strong position in Central Europe – even throughout the whole continent. As its success continues and it gains prestige and profile, its value will rise. Those investing in the WSE already know this, and will likely pay a premium price for WSE stock.

Considering this state of affairs, the government would do well to consider privatizing other state-controlled giants this way – it already plans to sell 16 percent of Enea, which it failed to sell to strategic investor RWE earlier this year, on the bourse.

When the government needs to get the best price for its assets, and potential strategic investors worldwide looking for bargains, privatizing on the bourse may be the best option.
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Last Friday The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange had opted out of bidding for the WSE.

Of the four short-listed potential investors – the others being NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX and Deutsche Börse – the German exchange seems to be the favorite.

For one thing, Deutsche Börse has been pretty vocal about its interest. At the Krynica Economic Forum last month, a managing director of the company took time out to talk up the firm's credentials with our correspondent (find the interview here). He mentioned better synergy and the capability of derivatives trading (which the LSE doesn't offer), as reasons DB is the perfect fit for the WSE.

When contacted by reporters for a reaction to LSE's pullout, Deutsche Börse's spokesperson confirmed that it was still on track to bid, while all the others declined to comment. Earlier this year, Nasdaq OMX announced that it would be competing with the Warsaw Stock Exchange by offering Central European blue chips through a multilateral trading facility. That seems to count out its bid.

That just leaves the silent NYSE Euronext. It could submit a bid, but it hasn't been very active or vocal. It may want to shore up its positions in Western Europe and the United States before it makes a large takeover bid – and it is understood that the government won't sell the WSE for peanuts.

We should see how all of this plays out in the coming months, as the privatization process was supposed to be completed by the end of the year. If the bidders don't make an attractive offer, or if a snafu appears – as has occurred in several of the government's plans for privatization of state-owned companies this year – all bets are off.
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