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Selling the WSE on the WSE
  Posted on 1 Tue, Dec 2009, with tags: central europe, pge, europe
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So, the Warsaw Stock Exchange won't be taken over by a larger global exchange – at least not this year. Deutsche Börse, the only of three shortlisted companies to make a binding offer for a majority stake, failed to submit an improved bid at the request of Poland, and thus the government's privatization plans have been scuppered, once again.

The privatization of state assets this year is problematic anyway. Though the government desperately needs the income to combat a growing budget deficit, it doesn't want to give up profitable companies for less than they are worth.

It may be that the government is learning a lesson from the hugely successful privatization of PGE late last month. Instead of trying to sell the huge electricity firm to a strategic investor, they floated it on the bourse.

Investors in the bourse – and regular Poles who were attracted to the bourse for the first time by the debut – understood what an important company PGE is, and how successful it can be. A strategic investor would have likely tried to push down the price, looking for a bargain and sensing the government's urgency. With PGE's debut, the Treasury got more than it had hoped for.

Thus, suggestions that the WSE be privatized on the exchange itself are good ones. The WSE is in a strong position in Central Europe – even throughout the whole continent. As its success continues and it gains prestige and profile, its value will rise. Those investing in the WSE already know this, and will likely pay a premium price for WSE stock.

Considering this state of affairs, the government would do well to consider privatizing other state-controlled giants this way – it already plans to sell 16 percent of Enea, which it failed to sell to strategic investor RWE earlier this year, on the bourse.

When the government needs to get the best price for its assets, and potential strategic investors worldwide looking for bargains, privatizing on the bourse may be the best option.
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No new taxes?
  Posted on 27 Mon, Jul 2009, with tags: budget, tusk, privatization
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Prime Minister Donald Tusk hasn't been great at keeping his promises. During the 2007 election campaign, he promised an 'economic miracle' if his party was brought to power – so much for that. Last September, he said that Poland would enter the euro zone in 2012 – that now looks impossible.

And just this weekend the Prime Minister made another promise – one that many of us wonder if he will be able to keep.

“[O]n the basis of premises that have emerged while drafting next year’s budget, I can finally settle this matter once and for all ... Estimates indicate that the Polish economy is in a better situation than those of the neighboring countries, and this allows me to say this with 100-percent confidence: taxes will not be raised in 2010.”

Does anyone else cringe when they read the words “100-percent confidence”?

Being a child of the 80s, when I heard this I was immediately reminded of George H. W. Bush's now infamous “Read my lips: No new taxes” promise. Of course, after he was elected, Bush 41 was promptly forced to raise taxes.

This promise has that type of smell to it: Despite Poland doing better than its neighbors, the economy isn't going gangbusters. Plenty of analysts believe that Poland will head into recession this year, and estimates for economic growth next year are anemic. How will the government raise funds to cover the expected gaping budget deficit, if not by taxes then? There is too much political pressure against cutting government spending – President Kaczyński would likely be dead-set against it.

The only choice then, would be to speed up privatization, which the government has said it will do. (Admittedly privatization revenues are not counted against the budget deficit. However they can be used to finance the deficit instead of borrowing.)

But in this tough economy, it's unlikely that the government will be able to get what it wants for its state-owned giants. Currently, the government is trying to resolve the PZU situation amicably, getting a good price for the stake in PZU that it is obligated to sell Dutch insurer Eureko – things don't seem to be going well. Also, the government has already ruled out selling KGHM, since the price the state would get for it would only amount to 5 years worth of the copper-miner's profit.

Buyers know that now is a time to get a good deal, and won't accept anything less.

This reporter certainly hopes that Prime Minister Tusk will be able to come through on his promise and not raise taxes ... but that is looking increasingly unlikely. You don't have to read his lips – just take a look at the government's balance sheet.
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