52.2 billion złoty – that is the Finance Ministry's estimate of Poland's budget deficit next year, nearly twice what it is this year. The figure inches towards some 7 percent of GDP, far higher than the 3 percent limit mandated by the European Union.

The media are bursting with outrage and amazement. Was this not the same government that purported to be fiscally responsible? That only a few months ago was assuring us that we would be entering the ERM-II pre-euro zone waiting room in the second half of this year?

Interestingly however, analysts seem unsurprised and un-alarmed. As the global economic crisis deepened and continued to affect Poland, everyone was sure the country's budget deficit would grow sharply over this year's. And taking Poland's growth this year into account – as likely the only EU country to avoid recession – such a high deficit seems a small price to pay for relative economic prosperity.

Indeed, many analysts believe the FM has overshot the mark, purposefully underestimating economic growth next year, in order to bring the deficit in even lower during a presidential election year, allowing PM Tusk – who will certainly run for president – to claim that things are better than had been predicted.

Still, the announcement brings into question the government's credibility. When it was telling us earlier this year that we would be entering ERM-II, few bought it, and no one was worried when it didn't happen. The same now goes for these vastly upwards-revised budget figures. When we know the government isn't telling us the truth, why isn't anyone calling them on it? Why aren't PO's poll numbers dropping dramatically?

Part of the reason is that there are very few options to choose from – practically no one expects that PiS or SLD, the other viable parties in the Parliament, would do much better with Poland's fiscal headaches. Next week's cover story in WBJ (available in stores Monday, September 14) will examine this phenomenon. The PO-PSL government has promised much and delivered little, with its inability to sell off the country's distressed shipyards to a foreign investor being the latest example. Still, PO currently looks well-placed to hang on to power.

And one final note: This week WBJ is pleased to announce the publication of Investing in Poland 2010, a new annual publication on the investment climate in Poland's cities and regions, with special sections on Poland's macroeconomics, its Special Economic Zones and its Technology Parks. It is simply an essential resource for anyone with an investment in Poland, or considering locating one here. Investing in Poland 2010 will be available starting tomorrow at the Economic Forum in Krynica, and thereafter at shops and kiosks across the country, as well as at embassies, consulates, chambers of commerce and via WBJ.pl.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk hasn't been great at keeping his promises. During the 2007 election campaign, he promised an 'economic miracle' if his party was brought to power – so much for that. Last September, he said that Poland would enter the euro zone in 2012 – that now looks impossible.

And just this weekend the Prime Minister made another promise – one that many of us wonder if he will be able to keep.

“[O]n the basis of premises that have emerged while drafting next year’s budget, I can finally settle this matter once and for all ... Estimates indicate that the Polish economy is in a better situation than those of the neighboring countries, and this allows me to say this with 100-percent confidence: taxes will not be raised in 2010.”

Does anyone else cringe when they read the words “100-percent confidence”?

Being a child of the 80s, when I heard this I was immediately reminded of George H. W. Bush's now infamous “Read my lips: No new taxes” promise. Of course, after he was elected, Bush 41 was promptly forced to raise taxes.

This promise has that type of smell to it: Despite Poland doing better than its neighbors, the economy isn't going gangbusters. Plenty of analysts believe that Poland will head into recession this year, and estimates for economic growth next year are anemic. How will the government raise funds to cover the expected gaping budget deficit, if not by taxes then? There is too much political pressure against cutting government spending – President Kaczyński would likely be dead-set against it.

The only choice then, would be to speed up privatization, which the government has said it will do. (Admittedly privatization revenues are not counted against the budget deficit. However they can be used to finance the deficit instead of borrowing.)

But in this tough economy, it's unlikely that the government will be able to get what it wants for its state-owned giants. Currently, the government is trying to resolve the PZU situation amicably, getting a good price for the stake in PZU that it is obligated to sell Dutch insurer Eureko – things don't seem to be going well. Also, the government has already ruled out selling KGHM, since the price the state would get for it would only amount to 5 years worth of the copper-miner's profit.

Buyers know that now is a time to get a good deal, and won't accept anything less.

This reporter certainly hopes that Prime Minister Tusk will be able to come through on his promise and not raise taxes ... but that is looking increasingly unlikely. You don't have to read his lips – just take a look at the government's balance sheet.