Last month, the treasury and finance ministries were wrangling over the dividend the bank would pay out. The Prime Minister stepped in and settled the matter, but it now looks like the bank's supervisory board (which had believed that paying out the bank's entire zł.3 billion in 2008 profits as a dividend would hurt its lending capabilities) held a grudge against the bank's now-former president, Jerzy Pruski, who had been in favor of paying out all of the bank's profits as a dividend.
Mr. Pruski won the dividend battle, but not the war it appears. The supervisory board dismissed Mr. Pruski on Tuesday. No justification was given, but it is generally understood that the fight over the dividend had been the last straw.
Now the bank is left without a leader (though a deputy president has taken on the role of CEO temporarily) in the middle of a global financial crisis. The situation is reflecting poorly on PKO as a state-owned company – but we already knew that state-owned companies were chaotic and not necessarily profit-driven. However, it also reflects poorly on the government, whose internal conflicts have spilled over into one of Poland's most important financial institutions.
...
In other news, the polls keep popping up showing that Jolanta Kwaśniewska – wife of former leftist president Aleksander Kwaśniewski – would beat Prime Minister Donald Tusk in next year's presidential election. Today's front page of Gazeta Wyborcza shows that she would trounce Tusk in a head-to-head matchup, 57% to 43%. As I write this entry, Ms. Kwaśniewska is appearing on television, telling the interviewer that she is quite happy where she is, and has no intention of entering politics. That may be true – but if these polls keep appearing, the pressure from Poland's more-or-less leaderless Left for her to run will be overwhelming. There's also a good chance that Mr. Tusk's popularity isn't about to rise anytime soon, as Poles seem to be tiring of the inability of the Tusk government to effect change.
...
There's also a lot of talk today about a meeting scheduled for next week between the Prime Minister and President to discuss the changes in the budget. Boiled down, this meeting will be about taxes, as the government will almost certainly have to raise some to close some gaping holes in the budget. But Civic Platform (PO), the larger party in the government coalition, doesn't want to risk its pro-business, low-tax credentials, as well as its one major tax victory – the lowering of income tax and the change to two tax brackets, which came into place in January of this year. Instead, the government has said that it wants to increase VAT rates, which could bring in quite a bit of money with a small percentage rise.
But higher VAT would affect everyone buying products, including Poland's poorest, who already have it worse than previously on account of the crisis. Civic Platform's government coalition partner, the Polish People's Party (PSL), has said that it won't approve of such a measure, and the main opposition, Law and Justice (PiS), has echoed that view.
They prefer a rise in taxes for Poland's richest and/or a return to the three-bracket system. That would have PO go back on its promises, and it is anyway questionable how much revenue this would generate, considering the drop in income for Poland's richest this year, and the poor earnings of the companies they own and manage.
Poland's consumption, on the other hand, continues to be surprisingly strong. People are still going shopping, despite the hard times. A VAT rise thus seems much more likely to bring in the needed funds to the Treasury. Can the government convince a grumpy electorate that a rise in prices at the shops is the best way to save Poland's finances?
So it's tax-the-rich vs. Realpolitik. Look for a big battle over this one.
Comments (0) READ MORE
