For those of you who haven't seen it yet, here's WBJ's endorsement for this weekend's presidential election:

A critical decision lies before Poles this weekend. The choice they make during Sunday’s election – whether the final vote turns out to be this weekend or in a runoff two weeks later – will have profound, far-reaching repercussions for society, the economy, the business environment and the level of prosperity.

There are 10 presidential candidates vying for Poles’ votes, but only two have a chance of making it to a second round – Speaker of the Sejm and Acting President Bronisław Komorowski of Civic Platform (PO) and Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) party.

If Poles want to improve upon the relative economic stability and prosperity they have enjoyed over the past two years – a period of strife between the government and president – then Mr Komorowski is the clear choice.

Candidate Komorowski – positives and negatives

Mr Komorowski is not without fault. During a recent trip to London he blundered by stating that Poland didn’t need investments in shale-gas extraction – investments that could potentially give a massive boost to the country’s energy security – and confused its environmental risks with those of open-pit coal mining.

He has demonstrated a sometimes tenuous grasp of economics, and recently said that Poland should not demand that the US lift its visa requirement for Poles. That’s not a position that is likely to endear him to voters.

While Mr Kaczyński’s campaign has been disciplined and visible, Mr Komorowski’s has stumbled at times. He has visibly struggled to campaign effectively while discharging the duties of both Sejm speaker and acting president, although the latter role offered easy press during the recent floods.

In the eyes of WBJ’s editorial board, these drawbacks illustrate that the newspaper was right to have endorsed his opponent in the Civic Platform primary – Radosław Sikorski, whose education and international experience trump those of Mr Komorowski. Such drawbacks do not, however, make the other candidates in the election more attractive.
Mr Komorowski has plenty of upside. His choice to lead Poland’s central bank, former Prime Minister Marek Belka, was superb. He assumed the office of acting president under difficult circumstances, but with poise. He has quietly signed important legislation and has worked well together with Prime Minister Tusk to handle difficult issues – not least of which has been the recent flooding.

If these past two and a half months are anything to judge by, Mr Komorowski should make a competent president.

Candidate Kaczyński – toned down, but unchanged

His main opponent, Mr Kaczyński, has smartly moved towards the center despite the emotionally charged political environment. He is roundly panned by much of the media, but his patriotism is unquestioned. Mr Kaczyński’s heartfelt desire to deal with historical wrongs and his passion for snuffing out corruption are admirable and desirable traits in a president. He is widely credited as the brains behind Law and Justice’s rise to power, a master of the political scene (although typically from behind the scenes) and a strong leader.

But Mr Kaczyński’s record tells a less flattering story. The 2005-2007 Law and Justice government, which he led and served as prime minister of for the majority of its rule, courted controversy with reckless abandon. Mr Kaczyński’s crusade to root out former communist collaborators turned into a witch hunt, and the country gained an international reputation for being stubborn, uncooperative and prickly.

When it came to business, the record was also negative. Personal income tax cuts passed at the end of its term were beneficial, as Law and Justice MP Paweł Poncyljusz points out in our interview this week (see p. 9). But the economic growth that Poland underwent during those years – which Mr Poncyljusz also points to as a positive – came about despite the PiS government, not because of it.

There was a worldwide economic boom at that time: how much stronger would Poland’s growth have been if PiS officials hadn’t been discouraging foreign investment (as when Finance Minister Teresa Lubińska said that investments from firms such as Tesco were not welcome), or impeding business processes (such as Pekao’s takeover of BPH, which was drawn out for months in order to find a solution that would keep state-owned PKO as Poland’s biggest lender)?

In opposition, the record is also ugly. Law and Justice has looked to impede the government at every turn – and has opposed pro-business and pro-reform legislation. Fair enough, that is an opposition party’s prerogative. But it would have done the country a much greater service by offering viable solutions in return.

Remove PO’s excuse

The current government is slow on the uptake and many of its goals are left unachieved or, indeed, forgotten. But it has delivered on its two most important promises: it has improved Poland’s international image and it has steadfastly promoted economic growth.

Until recently, though, it cited an obstructionist president as its primary excuse for not doing more. Now is the time to remove that excuse, forcing Civic Platform to make good on promises to implement economic reforms, slim the state and improve the business environment. Either the party delivers on these promises, laying the groundwork for future prosperity and gaining international clout in the process, or it does not, giving the electorate a great reason to vote it out of power.

For those with Poland’s economic future in mind, a Komorowski win is the best-case scenario. For better or worse, there is no alternative.

Warsaw Business Journal made a splash yesterday with its story on US President Obama deciding to go play a round of golf instead of attending the funeral of President Kaczyński and his wife on Sunday. The story, which was originally broken by The Washington Times, found its way onto a prominent spot on the conservative news aggregator “The Drudge Report” and consequentially lit up the blogosphere and conservative-leaning news sites. We were even quoted by FoxNews.com. (UPDATE: Fox News ran our headline on TV as well)

“Obama's Golf Game Draws Ire from Polish Press” read one headline, referencing our story. “The move sparked some anger at the Warsaw Business Post [sic] newspaper in Poland,” read a line in Canada's National Post.

For the record, the story wasn't written with any “ire” or “anger,” though we were certain it would draw some. Those of us on the editorial board admit to some disappointment at Obama's decision – it was obviously made without thought to how it would play in Poland, marking the second Poland-related faux pas he has made in his 15 months as president. The first was his terrible decision to announce the scrapping of George W Bush's missile shield deal with Poland on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's invasion of the country in 1939. At best the decision was insensitive. At worst it was blatant disregard.

Nevertheless, there has begun a stout defense of Mr Obama as well: “Let Obama play golf” reads the title of an opinion piece by The Telegraph's Harry Mount. “In defense of Obama's golfing adventures” is the headline of on op-ed by The Washington Examiner's Stephen G. Smith. All seem to make the argument that the president deserves some R&R – he is a hardworking guy, after all.

We take no issue with Obama relaxing – though with an election coming up and a Supreme Court battle on his hands, we wonder if his time couldn't have been better spent. We do, however, take issue with Obama's lip service to Poland as an important ally, then clearly disregarding that allies' sensitivities. Though the Polish Embassy in Washington DC was closed on Sunday – meaning he couldn't have gone to pay his respects by signing the book of condolences (as his Secretary of State and Vice President had) before he went out golfing – one wonders why he didn't choose to do so earlier in the week. That could have been on Friday for example, when he cancelled his trip due to the volcanic ash spewing from Iceland. *(UPDATE BELOW) An easier solution would have been to stop by a church and light a candle – a photo op that would have gained him enormous credibility here in Poland.

The blog American Thinker put it nicely:

“Some world leaders were also unable to attend, others found alternate means of travel. Barack, rather than visiting, paying respects, and signing the sympathy book the Polish Embassy in Washington DC, decided to solemnly commemorate the death of a world leader by shooting a few rounds of golf. Focused like a laser on the 18th hole, Barack did not allow his birdie to be distracted by how blatant irreverence might 'tee off' the world community.

French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also were unable to attend the funeral. However, Sarkozy did not express condolences while toweling off after a tennis match, nor did Chancellor Merkel commiserate from International Dance Week in Dresden.”

The writer concludes by mentioning that President Bush gave up golf, because it sent the wrong signal to be frolic king on the golf course while American soldiers were dying.

“Excuse me Mr. Bush, do you mean 'sends the wrong signal,' similar to the type of signal the leader of the free world sends by choosing to play golf while the president of Poland is laid to rest – that kind of wrong signal?”

What signal has Mr Obama sent to Poland?

 

Notes:

In our review of the reaction to this story, we noticed some terrible errors in the re-writes of our story and The Washington Times'. One of these was the mis-naming of Warsaw Business Journal as The Warsaw Business Post (as mentioned above). This mistake was repeated by an alarming number of news outlets. Do none of these journalists use Google?

More egregious, however, was the horrible misspelling of President Kaczyński's name by FoxNews.com, which cited our headline as "Obama Goes Golfing Instead of Attending Kachinsky's Funeral."

Leaving aside the style point that we don't capitalize every word of our headlines, as is American convention, our headline was: "Obama goes golfing instead of attending Kaczyńskis' funeral" -- that's with the apostrophe after the "s" - since after all it was also the funeral of Maria Kaczyńska, the president's wife. Together, it was the funeral of the Kaczynskis. This was missed by many outlets as well. (Incidentally, Polish skirts the issue of having two slightly differently spelled male and female last names with the collective Kaczyńscy.)

 

*Update:

While my quick check of the embassy's website had led me to believe it was closed on Sunday, the Ewa Błaszczynska - the Washington, DC-based author of our CEE policy watch blog - tells us that the Polish Embassy WAS INDEED OPEN ALL DAY SUNDAY. She knows, she was there personally. She writes: 

"I wanted to let you know that the Polish Embassy in Washington DC was in fact open on Sunday. They opened it up so that the American-Polish Forum ... could host a LIVE viewing of the Kaczyński funeral. The embassy was open as early as 7:45 am EST and yours truly even organized a lovely buffet breakfast for everyone. We had about 40 plus people attend including embassy staff and other friends of Poland. Had President Obama been aware, he could have stopped by to catch a glimpse of the funeral, grab a bagel and coffee and even sign the book of condolences (which was still on display and available for signing) all before hitting the links. This was even more possible given that the Polish Embassy is conveniently located just a few blocks up from the White House."

So President Obama had no excuse for not finding the time to find some way to pay his respects. Thanks for the tip, Ewa!

We are still reeling from the tragedy in Smolensk, and the full implications of the events are still not completely clear.

But this is, without question, the greatest event to test Poland's democracy since the fall of the Iron Curtain. A swathe of leaders – including much of the leadership of Poland's largest opposition party – have been lost.

A huge vacuum has been created – some high-ranking positions left vacant. Others, like the presidency, have been filled by political opponents of those who previously held the office.

Political battles being waged prior to the tragedy – such as between the late president of the National Bank of Poland Sławomir Skrzypek and the Monetary Policy Council over the NBP's profits – have been put on the back burner for now, but many have, de facto, been resolved in favor of one side, for better or worse.

There will be many who see conspiracy. There will be those who call for drastic measures. There will be those who cynically see the opportunity to take advantage of this tragedy for their own political gain. There will be even more who accuse opponents of such opportunism.

But Polish politicians must keep a cool head. The Constitution works, and is being followed. A presidential election will follow within 60 days.

Now is a time to mourn, a time to reflect and a time to support one another, regardless of political affiliation. The rebuilding and recovery process has already begun and as we come to grips with these terrible events, more will follow – and it must be undertaken with clearheadedness and determination.

The true test of a democracy is how well its laws are adhered to in crisis. The Polish people have endured far worse; we know they will recover once again. It is from their strength that Poland's democracy derives its strength – and that is how we know it will also weather this storm.

How proud we all are that Poland is MIPIM's “Guest of Honor” this year – now, the message that Poland was the only EU country to avoid recession, that it is a great place to invest – in real estate and in other sectors – and that it has a bright future, will all be heard loud and clear, right?

Well, only really if you speak Polish.

On Tuesday, Poland had the honor of co-opening the huge real estate event with a set of four talks that were to be a focus of the first day. The first was a speech by Rafał Baniak, undersecretary of state in the Economy Ministry, and the second a speech by Sławomir Majman, head of PAIiIZ. The third and fourth Poland-focused events were panel discussions, one which was moderated by myself, on Poland’s investment attractiveness.

The session I led was the only event of the four conducted completely in English.

Undersecretary Baniak’s speech – though full of positive economic data – failed to impress. Visibly sweating in front of the crowd of 200 or so, he droned on in a monotone Polish, only to look up from his notes once every few minutes. Mr Majman’s speech was more upbeat and entertaining. But after an introduction of two or three sentences in English, Mr Majman turned to the audience and asked: “Now, who here speaks Polish? Raise your hand.” After determining that the majority in the audience were Polish speakers, he continued for the rest of his speech in Polish.

Admittedly, there was a translator (who before the speeches was visibly upset, complaining to organizers that she had not received “a scrap” of preparation material from the undersecretary), so those who did not speak Polish could listen in on earphones.  But the prolific use of Polish seemed to turn away foreign-language speakers, with only a handful of foreign journalists staying on to watch the final panel. There was a palpable atmosphere of Poles speaking to Poles, for Poles.

The post-event cocktail was poorly attended – again, mostly by Poles.

All of this begs the question as to whether Poland is really making the most of the spotlight that has been cast upon it for MIPIM. It is an unprecedented opportunity – to showcase its potential to foreign investors not familiar to the market, not to brag to those who already know. The constant use of Polish comes off as standoffish, whereas English use might have generated more interest – and would have showcased Poland’s ability to use the most investor-friendly tool of all – speaking the world’s lingua franca.

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On a separate but related note, Poland’s city stands are impressive – large, modern set-ups with scale models of Euro 2012 stadiums, television displays and even bartenders. But there seem to be few new investors visiting. Just this morning, on a visit to the level just below where Gdańsk, Kraków, Poznań, Wrocław and Warsaw are located, I found a packed room of visitors flocking to the Moscow, Seoul, Frankfurt and Vienna stands. The Polish area upstairs was much emptier. The people who were there were hardly new to Poland as an investment destination. Most of the visitors were either speaking Polish, or recognizable to anyone in the market as those of businesspeople from Warsaw.

Whether this is due to the ubiquitous use of Polish at Poland-focused events is doubtful, but it’s hard to find another reason. Perhaps traffic will pick up in the days to come.