Last Friday, Bronisław Komorowski was
officially sworn in as Poland’s next president. Even though the
campaign is over, political mudslinging and party animosity
continues, as demonstrated by recent clashes over a cross erected in
front of the presidential palace to commemorate the plane crash that
killed President Kaczyński, First Lady Maria Kaczyńska and 94
others.
Having benefited from Poland’s
ability to withstand the worst of the global financial crisis, Civic
Platform (PO) and President Komorowski campaigned on the promise of a
modern, competent government and continued economic and structural
reforms. One of the main arguments against voting for Jarosław
Kaczyński and PiS was that critical legislative proposals would risk
being vetoed, and therefore, stifle Poland’s economic recovery and
social development.
Now that Mr Komorowski is president,
all eyes will be on PO and their ability to successfully tackle
Poland’s major challenges, including the rising deficit,
unemployment, tax reform, social transfers and economic
competitiveness. The government’s response to recent floods in
southern Poland, and especially its ability to assist (and
compensate) flood victims, will also determine the government’s
capacity and credibility for crisis management. This summer’s
floods have caused approximately €2.9 billion in damage and
affected over a quarter of a million inhabitants. In addition,
thousands of kilometers of regional and local roads (including
bridges) have been destroyed, adding to Poland’s long-standing
infrastructure woes. Let’s not forget the Euro 2012 soccer
championship is just around the corner.
More importantly, the Komorowski
victory will be a major test for PO before parliamentary elections
take place in October 2011. On the one hand real tangible reforms
cannot come without austerity measures and some social pain, as
evidenced throughout Europe. On the other, the Polish electorates’
tolerance for additional public-spending cuts and growing financial
burdens is waning.
In both cases, inaction risks
tarnishing PO’s reform credentials. If President Komorowski fails
voters’ expectations, this will only embolden PiS and draw new
supporters. The August break will soon be over and it will be time to
get to work. PO’s plate already looks full.
As Poland's presidential race reaches
its climax this weekend, much has been said about the country's
political divide. Many suggest that voters are deeply split over the
direction Poland should take, with debates centered on whether
Poland should be "modern" or traditional, eucentric or
independent, secular or religious. Equally, both Polish and foreign
media has played up the socio-economic differences between voters. In
some cases the media has pitted urban against rural, free market
beneficiaries against post-transition losers, young against old.
Interestingly, Poland's political
divide is also felt across the Atlantic. The Polish diaspora in the
US and Canada, numbering approximately 12 million, voted
overwhelmingly for Jarosław Kaczyński in the first round. Many are
conservative and fled Poland after 1945 due to their anti-communist
beliefs and continue to feel resentment towards the embedded remnants
of the former Party system. Most felt Kaczyński was the better
candidate to represent Poland and preserve its national interests.
This has angered some who question the validity and right of those
living outside Poland (most on a permanent basis) to vote on its
future political leadership.
These internal divisions create
unnecessary noise, and mean participants miss the bigger picture.
Poles have an enormous amount to gain and lose in this election. Amid
the personal jabs and political squabbles there are difficult policy
choices on the horizon, related to: public debt, national security,
EU relations and euro adoption, energy policy, the economy, pensions,
healthcare and education reform. They will affect each and every
citizen across the political spectrum for years (perhaps generations)
to come.
It is imperative that Polish voters
show some sophistication and vote on the substantive issues, the
candidates' platforms and ultimately for the candidate that will
help lead Poland into a more secure and prosperous future. I am sure
at least on this point we can all agree.