Having benefited from Poland’s ability to withstand the worst of the global financial crisis, Civic Platform (PO) and President Komorowski campaigned on the promise of a modern, competent government and continued economic and structural reforms. One of the main arguments against voting for Jarosław Kaczyński and PiS was that critical legislative proposals would risk being vetoed, and therefore, stifle Poland’s economic recovery and social development.
Now that Mr Komorowski is president, all eyes will be on PO and their ability to successfully tackle Poland’s major challenges, including the rising deficit, unemployment, tax reform, social transfers and economic competitiveness. The government’s response to recent floods in southern Poland, and especially its ability to assist (and compensate) flood victims, will also determine the government’s capacity and credibility for crisis management. This summer’s floods have caused approximately €2.9 billion in damage and affected over a quarter of a million inhabitants. In addition, thousands of kilometers of regional and local roads (including bridges) have been destroyed, adding to Poland’s long-standing infrastructure woes. Let’s not forget the Euro 2012 soccer championship is just around the corner.
More importantly, the Komorowski victory will be a major test for PO before parliamentary elections take place in October 2011. On the one hand real tangible reforms cannot come without austerity measures and some social pain, as evidenced throughout Europe. On the other, the Polish electorates’ tolerance for additional public-spending cuts and growing financial burdens is waning.
In both cases, inaction risks tarnishing PO’s reform credentials. If President Komorowski fails voters’ expectations, this will only embolden PiS and draw new supporters. The August break will soon be over and it will be time to get to work. PO’s plate already looks full.
