Speaking of developments since the Smolensk tragedy, Minister Sikorski cited the fact that Andrzej Wajda’s Katyn was shown on Russian state television and that there has been a shift towards the de-Stalinization of Russian historical memory as signs that the Kremlin in seeking to repair decades of strained relations. Moreover, he stressed that Russia is Poland’s number two trade partner and, as such, improved relations can only help both countries’ economies to develop.
A lasting rapprochement in Polish-Russian relations rests on three key issues:
1. Advanced reductions in conventional weapons via the CFE Treaty (The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe)
2. A reduction in tactical nuclear weapons (Russia has about 8,000 stationed near Poland and other former Communist bloc countries)
3.Energy security
Uncertainties
But given recent US commitments to greater US-Polish cooperation on energy, military and security matters, will the thaw last or is a bitter chill in store?
One of the highlights of Minister Sikorski’s visit was a signed memorandum of understanding with Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel B. Poneman to enhance cooperation in developing clean and efficient energy technologies. This initiative will seek to expand research and policy planning, as well as economic cooperation in areas related to clean coal technologies, energy efficiency, renewable energy, unconventional natural gas, civilian nuclear energy, and environmental and waste management. The goal is to reduce both Poland and Europe’s dependence on any one energy source (including Russian natural gas).
Despite signing an updated gas supply and transit agreement with Russia last October, giving Poland (via PGNiG) a 48 percent share in EuRoPolGaz, a Russian-Polish joint venture which operates the Polish sector of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, Poland is seeking to make energy security and European energy interdependence (by encouraging increases in EU interconnectors) the cornerstone of its upcoming EU presidency. This is supported by the European Commission’s approval of and financing for Poland’s first LNG terminal as well as the EIB, EBRD and World Bank’s $5 billion loan for the development of the Nabucco pipeline. This will bring gas to Europe via the Caspian Sea, avoiding Russian territory.
Neutralizing Russia
These initiatives have certainly raised Russian suspicions and put them on the offensive. However, as with the Nordstream gas pipeline project, the key to neutralizing Russia is to coop them up within larger EU and/or US-led energy cooperation frameworks (thereby holding Russia to international laws and regulations).
This has worked in the past. The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which decommissioned nuclear, biological and chemical weapons stockpiles in the former Soviet Union, and the updated Lugar-Obama Act (which sought to include conventional weapons) are thought to be two of the most successful joint US-Russian efforts. Moreover, for over a decade the National Nuclear Security Administration, an agency within the US Department of Energy, in cooperation with Russia's State Nuclear Energy Corporation, have developed a successful program which, to date, has trained some 200 Russian nuclear security experts.
As Poland and the US continue to explore the feasibility of nuclear energy, Russian design and operations expertise could be a valuable asset. Perhaps, indeed, US-Polish-Russian energy cooperation is not an entirely preposterous notion. In fact, it could even be strategically and mutually beneficial for all.
