The White House says that President Obama is looking forward to discussing issues of mutual concern. This is Washington-speak for Poland’s continuing mission in Afghanistan and the continuing Polish-Russian détente, specifically bringing Russia in under the NATO umbrella and helping to foster closer economic ties between Russia and the European Union.
Despite varying backgrounds and viewpoints, both men share one thing in common, neither really knows much about the other or their respective domestic political environments. Yet, this may play to both presidents’ advantage. For all the talk of a rupture in the transatlantic relationship and the Obama administration's disinterest in Europe, a successful meeting would boost both leaders’ diplomatic status and resonate well on both sides of the Atlantic. Up until the Smolensk tragedy, Poland was the biggest skeptic of Russia’s “democratic” credentials and a major critic of its foreign policy in Europe. Whether by choice or because of international pressure, Poland has done an about-face.
Poland is a leading contributor to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, with over 2,500 Polish troops serving mostly in eastern Ghazni province. For a relatively young democracy and new NATO member, Poland has gone above and beyond expectations. President Obama would be well advised to acknowledge this.
While a less costly and streamlined missile defense system, along with improved relations with Russia, are to every NATO members’ collective interest, any strategic partnership with Russia (as well as with other European powers) must include US guarantees that it will not forgo ongoing military cooperation nor sacrifice the security of its Central European allies at the behest of the Kremlin. This stance will benefit President Obama and score him some much-needed political points. This is especially the case as he depends on votes from Republicans (many of whom dismiss the administration’s “reset” policy with Russia), in order to ratify the new START Treaty.
Poland and President Komorowski, have much to gain from the meeting as well. Poland is in a good position to act as an intermediary for stronger US-EU relations. Specifically, Poland, via its increased visibility in the European Commission and Parliament, can persuade the EU to do a better job in assisting the United States in dealing with rising powers like China and India, supporting policies to combat global climate change, strengthening financial market regulations, improving energy sources and their security, and fighting global terrorism.
Diplomatic success in Washington and Brussels will serve both President Komorowski and Civic Platform well, particularly as they head towards parliamentary elections in 2011. In return, Poland should expect to garner US (and EU) support and continue promoting democracy and human rights in its eastern neighborhood, all the while improving relations with Moscow. It’s a tall order, but one worth serving up.
