Poland’s gross domestic product grew much faster in the third quarter of this year than it did in the second quarter, according to calculations by one of Poland’s most respected economic think tanks. Moreover, the vice president of the National Bank of Poland has added his voice to a chorus espousing the view that next year the country’s GDP could grow at a faster pace than the government currently expects.
How big will the rebound be?
All of this comes as domestic demand – widely regarded as the driver of Poland’s economy when it weathered the global economic downturn in 2009 as the only EU country not to go into recession – seems to be bouncing back after 18 months when consumers had pulled back spending.
According to the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), Poland’s GDP grew by 1.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2013. The think tank expects growth to accelerate to 2.1 percent in Q4 y/y. The figures are much higher than the 0.8 percent y/y GDP growth seen in Q2 and the 0.5 percent growth recorded in Q1 of this year.
“This was the highest growth rate in five quarters. Taking into account seasonal factors, the GDP growth rate in July-September was 0.6 percent compared to the previous quarter,” IBnGR said.
Source: Central Statistical Office, IBnGR
According to the think tank’s analysts, domestic demand was the main factor for growth in Q3. “This should be considered a favorable signal from the economy, because it means that the Polish economy is becoming less reliant on the uncertain economic situation abroad,” they wrote.
2014 also looking good
Also last week vice president of the National Bank of Poland Witold Koziński said that GDP growth could come in higher than 2.5 percent in 2014. The 2.5 percent growth rate is the projection included in Poland’s draft budget law for next year.
“The 2014 GDP growth estimate is realistic, but it may be higher,” Mr Koziński said.
In 2012, GDP growth slowed sharply to just 1.9 percent, from 4.5 percent in 2011. This year, economists expect Poland’s GDP growth to come in around 1.5 percent.
In mid-October, economists from the Polish branch of Citibank raised their forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2014 to as high as 3.1 percent.
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