Poland’s CPI inflation amounted to 1.0 percent year-on-year in September, Poland’s statistics office GUS announced Tuesday. The number is a slight drop on the August figure, which put inflation at 1.1 percent y/y. In month-on-month terms CPI came in at 0.1 percent.
Source: Central Statistical Office
The figures came in below expectations. Economists surveyed by the Polish Press Agency had expected CPI inflation to be 1.2 percent y/y and 0.2 percent m/m.
Nordea Markets economists wrote in a comment that inflation in September was influenced by an administrative decision which brought down prices in education. Kindergarten fees fell by as much as 17.7 percent m/m. “Changes of other consumer prices were broadly in line with expectations,” the economists stated.
“Given the surprising drop in the headline inflation rate in September, we have lowered [the] forecasted inflation path,” Nordea analysts wrote.
“We now predict that at the end of this year CPI inflation will not reach 1.5%, i.e. the lower end target range (2.5% +/- 1%-point). [The] inflation target of 2.5% could only be reached towards the end of Q2 2014 while earlier we have seen it at the turn of Q1 and Q2 next year,” they added.
Meanwhile, in a macroeconomic survey Poland’s central bank forecast CPI at 1.1 percent in 2013, and at 2.1 percent in 2014, growing to 2.5 percent in 2015.
The forecast puts the average interest rate for 2013 at 2.9 percent, and predicts a decrease in 2014 to 2.6 percent. However, interest rates will likely grow in 2015 to an average of 3.5 percent, the NBP wrote.
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