Poland’s gross domestic product grew by an annualized rate of 0.8 percent in Q2, according to Poland’s statistics office GUS. The figure was in line with the flash estimate published by GUS two weeks ago.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, Poland’s GDP expanded by 1.1 percent y/y. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.4 percent, which provided evidence that Poland’s economy is gaining momentum, experts said. The previous seasonally adjusted quarterly figures were 0.1 percent in Q4 2012 and 0.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Economists said that exports are the driving force behind the Polish economy’s recovery, as Poland’s biggest trading partners in the euro zone begin to emerge from recession.
“Exports rose by 5.1 percent y/y and imports continue to fall. The growth would be bigger if private consumption was higher, although an increase in consumption in the public sector has helped matters,” Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at X-Trade Brokers wrote in an e-mailed statement. “With production rising as well, we maintain our forecast that in H2, [Poland’s] economy will grow by 1.5 percent.”
A set of good macroeconomic data released this month had already suggested that the economy is “gradually recovering” from a sharp slowdown, said economists at Citi Handlowy in an e-mailed statement. They maintained their forecast that Polish GDP would grow by 1.5-2 percent in the second half of this year, on the back of stronger consumption growth and an improving situation in the labor market.
Moreover, when it comes to fixed investment “recent data from large companies suggest some improvement is under way, but we don’t expect an increase in investment demand before 2014,” the economists said.
“Our 2014 GDP growth forecast of 2.8% is above the market consensus and we believe today’s release is in line with this view. However, even despite this acceleration, economic growth remains well below potential and the negative output gap is unlikely to close anytime soon,” they concluded.
Private consumption increased 0.2 percent after holding unchanged in the first quarter, while fixed investment fell 3.8 percent after dropping 2 percent in the previous three months. Analysts saw the figures as further confirmation that the Polish economy had hit bottom in Q1 and was bouncing back.
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