Poland’s GDP grew by 0.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter compared to 0.5 percent y/y in Q1, according to a flash estimate released by statistics office GUS. The seasonally adjusted growth was 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 1.1 percent y/y.
The figures were an improvement on Q1, when Poland’s economy grew at a rate of just 0.5 percent y/y, its slowest rate in four years.
The statistics office expects improvement to continue. “In the following quarters we can count on moderate growth increases,” GUS vice president Halina Dmochowska said.
Analysts saw the figures as positive and a confirmation that the Polish economy had hit bottom in Q1 and was bouncing back.
“Today’s data confirm our hypothesis that [the] Polish economy has already passed the bottom of the slowdown and the scenario of a recession or even prolonged stagnation is getting less likely,” said economists from Bank Zachodni WBK in an e-mailed statement.
Most analysts said that increasing foreign trade, especially exports, was the main factor behind the rebound. “Forward looking indicators like PMI in Poland ... support the expectations of export led recovery,” said Agata Urbańska, CEE economist at HSBC.
“Taking into account other available statistical information it is likely that the key for acceleration of economic growth was improvement in foreign trade. At the same time, the domestic demand was probably still in contraction, mainly due to falling investments,” said the BZ WBK economists.
The economists said that the recovery was still “fragile” and would be “gradual,” but expect growth to continue to speed up, so that end-year GDP growth will amount to around 1 percent.
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