Poland’s unemployment rate may come down to 13 percent in the summer, said Deputy Labor Minister Jacek Męcina, adding that improvement in the labor figures is possible if economic conditions continue to improve and the ministry’s intervention on the labor market brings the expected results.

The Ministry of Labor and Social Policy estimated that the registered unemployment rate was 14.4 percent in February (compared to the official unemployment rate of 14.2 percent in January).

Source: Central Statistical Office

Labor Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz was sanguine about recent macroeconomic figures. “The January data on production and consumption ... give some room for optimism,” he said. “Hiring will intensify,” he added, citing predictions from Polish employment agencies and improving economic conditions in Germany, Poland’s biggest trading partner.

Other factors that could contribute to job creation are assistance to employers from the Labor Fund and reform of the labor code. On top of that, impetus will come from the government’s Polish Investments special purpose vehicle, as well as guarantees and loans offered by state-owned bank BGK, he added.

‘Don’t expect improvement’

Analysts from ManpowerGroup are less optimistic about the Polish labor market. They don’t see signs of improvement in the next three months.

“Any significant improvement [in the job market] should not be expected in the coming months. In the second quarter, we expect the continuation of the trend from the beginning of the year,” said Iwona Janas, the head of ManpowerGroup in Poland.

According to a Manpower survey released last week, 11 percent of companies plan employment cuts in the second quarter of 2013 and 11 percent plan to increase employment, while 75 percent expect no change. The seasonally adjusted net employment outlook for the Polish labor market reached -2 percent, the lowest level in the survey’s history.

“The uncertain economic situation is forcing employers to look for savings. It is hard to expect employers to raise remunerations, and even pay reductions should be expected,” said Ms Janas.

AS, AK