Poland’s industrial production in January proved much stronger than analysts had expected, data released by Poland’s statistics office GUS showed last week. In year-on-year terms, the value of sold industrial production rose 0.3 percent, against analysts’ expectations of a drop of some 3 percent. In monthly terms, industrial production rose by 5.4 percent, while the market had expected a rise of just 3 percent.

Piotr Bujak, chief economist for Poland at Nordea Bank, said that the figures had “beaten the most optimistic forecasts,” and added that along with the stronger-than-expected German ZEW index released earlier in the day, the data “herald better times for the Polish economy going forward.”

But other economists were less sanguine. “[The] improvement against December was partly due to a working-days effect and it is too early to say, based on these figures, that Polish industry is recovering,” Bank Zachodni WBK economists wrote in a statement.
“We stick to our long-held view that assumes economic growth is likely to bottom out in Q1 at around 0.5 percent y/y and gradually pick up in the following quarters,” Citi Handlowy analysts wrote, adding that despite the stronger industrial output they still maintain their assessment that “overall growth in Poland will be below potential, helping to keep inflation under control.”

In their view, though, the picture could improve if the German economy accelerates more than expected.

AK, AS