A recent report by consultancy firm PwC has a special feature on Poland as the leading economy in the CEE region. According to the data presented in its "The World in 2050" report, Poland should continue to catch up to its more powerful neighbors (Germany, Russia) in the coming years, but demographic issues, among others, will slow down the process.
Poland's average annual GDP growth from now until 2050 will be 2.5 percent, according to the PwC report. That would be lower than the average 3.3 percent growth Poland has seen since 1990.
But most economies grow at a slower rate as they get richer. And relative to Germany, Poland's largest trade partner, the Polish economy is still expected to grow at an impressive clip. In 1990, when Poland's market reform process began, Polish GDP per capita was only 8 percent of Germany's. Currently the figure is 25 percent and in 2030 it should be 34 percent, the study finds.

Falling behind

As for now, Poland boasts the 18th-largest economy in the world with $813 billion in GDP. In 2030 the Polish economy will fall to 19th-largest globally, with a GDP of $1.4 billion. By 2050, Poland will drop out of the list of the 20 biggest economies in the world altogether.
The reason for the slowdown is mostly demographics. In 2035, the number of Poles of working age (15-64) will drop 14 percent from where it currently stands. It also has one of the lowest fertility rates in the EU (1.3 children born per woman in her child-bearing years). Plus, it's not an attractive place for immigrants because of low salaries, the report finds.

Save and invest

PwC analysts suggest Poles should start saving and investing, and not rely on foreign direct investment. Poland's average current account deficit since 2004 has been 4.5 percent of GDP, but despite this, total national investment was only at 21.4 percent of GDP (as compared to 23.8 percent in Germany). This is not sustainable if Poland wants to remain a relatively high-growth economy in the long run.

Jacek Ciesnowski

New World Order