Industrial output shrank by 0.8 percent year-on-year in November, significantly down from October, when output grew by 4.6 percent y/y, Poland’s Central Statistical Office said on Wednesday. The slowdown proves that the rebound in output growth in October was a one-off event due to a positive working-day effect (2 days more than a year earlier), Nordea Bank analysts wrote in a statement. In November, the positive effect was weaker (1 day more on the year), driving output growth lower, the bank added.

“We think that the recent … data (lower than expected [consumer price] inflation, wages, employment and industrial output) will provide an incentive for central bankers to continue monetary easing. Thus, we believe that moderate hawks will support not only the next rate cut by 25 basis points in January … but they will also vote for [another] two cuts in Q1 2013, bringing the key policy rate down to 3.5 percent,” the Nordea analysts wrote.

RG