Poland's manufacturing PMI, a measure of sentiment in the industry, rose 0.3 points in October from the previous month to 47.3. However, the reading was still the second-lowest in Poland's seven-month sequence of readings below 50. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction.
The market consensus forecast had been for a reading of 46.7 points, so the figures were somewhat heartening in that light.
Nevertheless, in its report accompanying the figures, HSBC which produces the survey in cooperation with Markit, had little positive to say.
“Output, new orders and purchasing activity all continued to fall in October, albeit at slower rates than in September,” the report read. “Manufacturers continued to erode their backlogs, and cut workforces at the fastest rate in three years. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in the sector remained weak as both output and input prices declined over the month.”
The report also said that the main reason for the deterioration in the business climate was a contraction in the volume of new business received – the ninth consecutive month such a contraction had occurred.
Agata Urbanska, an economist for Central & Eastern Europe at HSBC said that the reading portends more negative numbers to come for the remainder of the year, and added that interest rate cuts from the National Bank of Poland are likely.
“We expect that the increasingly more pronounced economic slowdown will be met with a response from monetary policy. We expect the central bank to start an interest rate cutting cycle in November,” she said in a statement.
From Warsaw Business Journal by Andrew Kureth
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