In a decision that surprised the market, the National Bank of Poland’s interest-rate setting Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to leave its main interest rate unchanged at 4.75 percent last Wednesday.
In recent weeks there has been a parade of macroeconomic figures showing that Poland’s economy is in slowdown mode. Just last Monday, Poland’s manufacturing PMI reading dropped to 47, its lowest since the height of the crisis in Poland, in July 2009.
|Source: National Bank of Poland|
After it was announced rates would be left on hold, the złoty gained against major currencies.
The decision was a bigger surprise than the one the RPP made in May, when it decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at X-Trade Brokers said in an e-mailed statement in reaction to the decision. He titled his report “The council from another world,” referring to the Monetary Policy Council.
“There is now hard evidence [of a slowdown in Poland],” he wrote, “but the council continues to wait.”
It a statement released with the announcement, the NBP indicated that it left rates on hold because inflation remains at 3.8 percent, well above its target of 2.5 percent.
The statement had a mostly dovish tone, however, and analysts now expect the RPP to cut rates by 25 basic points at its November meeting.
From Warsaw Business Journal by Andrew Kureth
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