Polish oil and gas company PKN Orlen and the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) say the Polish shale gas industry could create more than half a million jobs and generate tax revenues of zł.87 billion by 2020.

A joint report by the two entities presented at the Economic Forum predicts that shale gas will not only increase Poland’s importance in the international arena, but also strengthen the position of countries currently dependent on Russia’s gas giant Gazprom, since they will be able to import the resource from Poland.

During the presentation, CASE presented three possibilities for the future development of the shale gas industry in Poland. The three scenarios take into account differing levels of demand and investment in the energy sector.

Shale gas scenarios

The most optimistic outlook foresees 15 billion cubic meters of shale gas being produced by 2020. If this scenario were to be realized, Poland’s budget could receive zł.87 billion annually from taxes related to shale gas extraction.

The most pessimistic scenario assumes there will be production of 3 billion cubic meters of shale gas, while the middle-of-the-road estimate sees production at 5.6 billion cubic meters.

However, the optimistic approach presented by Orlen and CASE was received coolly by Dr Piotr Moncarz of Stanford University, an energy expert. He said that in order to start thinking about exploiting shale gas on a commercial scale, Polish legislation would have to be systematized when it comes to regulations dealing with shale gas extraction and sales.

Aside from these projections, PKN Orlen announced its ambition to acquire the largest number of shale gas concessions in Poland. The firm currently owns eight licenses for shale gas across the country while gas monopolist PGNiG has the most, with a total of 15.