Retail sales growth slowed in March to 10.7 percent y/y from 13.7 percent y/y in February, while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 13.3 percent in March. “Stronger sales prior to Easter could have helped to maintain the headline figure at a double-digit level. Retail sales growth in real terms in the whole of Q1 suggests a stabilization of consumer demand growth at a level close to that seen in Q4 2011,” BZ WBK wrote in a statement.

Source: GUS

“We expect that the [Council] will keep interest rates on hold. In our view, it will be difficult to gather a majority to back a hike at the upcoming Monetary Policy Council meeting, provided that NBP governor Marek Belka will not support such a motion,” the bank wrote. 

The unemployment drop was expected, and is broadly in line with the seasonal trend that sees hiring increase in the spring.

RG, AK