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IMF raises forecast for Emerging Europe

23rd April 2012
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The International Monetary Fund sees the region's prospects as brighter than it did at the beginning of the year

The IMF has raised 2012 growth expectations for Emerging Europe, a region which includes Poland, to 1.9 percent, up from the 1.1 percent it forecast in January this year.
The IMF also expects the region to grow by 2.9 percent next year, up from its earlier 2.4 percent forecast.

Poland is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2012 and by 3.2 percent in 2013, making it the leader in terms of growth in the region, according to the organization’s bi-annual World Economic Outlook published last week.

“Near-term growth pro-spects in emerging Europe will be closely tied to developments in the euro area core,” the IMF stated.

“Much of the spillover from the euro area slowdown in late 2011 will already have been absorbed, and trade growth and manufacturing activity are expected to pick up, both in the euro area and globally, through 2012,” it added.

The Emerging Europe region comprises CEE countries including Turkey but excluding euro-zone states Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia, as well as the Czech Republic, which the IMF now classifies as Advanced Europe.

The IMF is also slightly more optimistic about the global economy than it was in its previous report. It now expects global output to grow by 3.5 percent this year and 4.1 percent in 2013. Last year, the global economy expanded by 3.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the euro zone, a key trading partner for Poland, is expected to expand by 2.1 percent this year. “Policy has played an important role in recent improvements, but various fundamental problems remain unresolved,” the IMF wrote in its report.


From Warsaw Business Journal by Remi Adekoya


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