The optimist

At a recent American Chamber of Commerce meeting, three prominent economists shared their different outlooks for the Polish economy in 2012.

Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy, said she was optimistic about 2012.
“According to my projections, economic growth in Poland in 2012 will be 3.1 percent. The last three years have shown that the Polish economy is relatively immune to the turmoil in the global economy, in particular to other countries in the region affected by the problems in the euro zone.”

“I believe this because of these three reasons: first, we have a large internal market of 38 million people who buy goods and services. Second, the share of exports of goods and services in GDP in Poland is only about 40 percent, while in Hungary and the Czech Republic it is more than 60 percent, so a decrease in foreign demand is reflected in this category to a limited extent. And finally, Poland uses [money] allocated to it under the EU funds.”

The moderate

Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist at the Polish Business Roundtable, says his outlook is more middle-of-the-road.

“There’s a strong correlation between Poland and Germany. Poland achieved 4.3 percent GDP growth last year because Germany achieved 3 percent growth. This year we should stay on the level of 2.4 percent GDP, which is still impressive if you look at the euro zone as a whole.”

“In the medium term, the first thing that is needed is structural reforms that the government has tried to start, especially pension and tax reforms. If they can start these reforms, we’ll have the chance to achieve 3-4 percent growth in the medium term.”

The pessimist

Krzysztof Rybiński, professor and rector of the Vistula University in Warsaw, is more pessimistic, warning Poles do not to feel too comfortable.

“2012 is a transition year, between the good and the bad. Over the last two years, Poland saw 4 percent growth. This year it will start to fall, and to 2 percent. Consumer spending will fall because of the higher living costs and taxes. Private investments will slow down because investors are afraid to invest ‘big time.’ Foreign investment will drop and public investments will go down because this is the last year of the massive EU spending.”

“The first half of the year will still be quite good and by the end of the year, there will be the first signs of an impending recession.”

Veronika Joy