On Tuesday, January 10, voters in New England state of New Hampshire cast the first ballots in the Republican presidential nomination. Campaign photographer and political writer Luke Vargas highlights those candidates with a fighting chance to win the nomination, and those whose time in the spotlight has likely come and gone. (All text and photos: Luke Vargas)

Peterborough, NH resident George Kurzon rests while staff of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney install a “Cut the Spending” banner in preparation for a “town hall meeting”-style campaign event in Peterborough, NH on November 19, 2011.

Governor Mitt Romney poses with a supporter after signing her pocket calendar. When the woman mentioned she was expecting a baby in February, Romney wrote a short message of congratulations: "Happy baby to you" on the page for that month. Nashua, NH, November 20, 2011.

As former Governor of the neighboring state of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney has had a sustained presence in New Hampshire since he ran unsuccessfully for President in 2008. Mr Romney’s status as the national frontrunner has frequently been challenged, but he still retains a healthy lead, with national polls putting him at 26.3 percent support, versus 17.7 percent for Rick Santorum and 15.5 percent for Newt Gingrich. Mr Romney has steadily built an army of high-ranking political and corporate supporters that may prove to be effective in sustaining a long campaign. He has recently begun deploying a number of his high-ranking political allies from around the country to speak on his behalf.

Several candidates have emerged to challenge Mr Romney in New Hampshire, modeling themselves as “underdogs” and characterizing Mr Romney as the establishment candidate who has taken his support in the state for granted. Mitt Romney may own a summer home on New Hampshire’s Lake Winnipesaukee, but the state’s voters are a difficult political sell, and are liable to turn on supposedly ‘darling’ candidates (note Mitt Romney’s second place finish in 2008).

Mr Romney’s so-called “brain trust” of campaign managers, pollsters, and strategists operates out of Boston, Massachusetts, where Bain & Company, the consulting firm he headed in the 1990s, is headquartered. Compared to his rivals, Mr Romney’s candidacy has often been characterized as scripted and organized, the antithesis of the grassroots campaigns run by rivals like Ron Paul. With a roll out of film-quality television advertising and strategic endorsements in recent weeks, Mr Romney’s road to the nomination should become stronger by the day, but voters have yet to shake their distrust of his true political ideology, as time and again they have shifted their support to his most prominent opponent of the moment.

Mitt Romney addresses the crowd at Peterborough Town Hall in Peterborough, NH on November 19, 2011.

On the heels of a rally in front of Nashua City Hall, Senator Kelly Ayotte laughs with Governor Mitt Romney as they enter the back door of Jackie's Diner. They are discussing the menu items they will soon be distributing to supporters and members of the media. Nashua, NH, November 20, 2011.
 
 

Newt Gingrich gives remarks before a crowd at St. Anselm’s College, Manchester, NH on November 21, 2011.

The former Speaker of the House of Representatives during the Clinton Presidency, Newt Gingrich is well-known compared to many of his rivals. As successive candidates have risen to challenge Mitt Romney only to fizzle out weeks later, Mr Gingrich’s familiarity to voters and his ability to confidently steer the political discourse towards his various policy talking points demonstrates to many that he is best candidate to forcefully confront President Obama and take apart his political initiatives.

As Mr Gingrich’s support surged in late November, he came under attack for his dealings in the decade since he left Congress. Payments he received from troubled mortgage giant Fannie Mae in the lead up to the recent housing bubble have already come under close scrutiny, in addition to his business dealings with health care corporations pushing for the health insurance “mandate” that is a cornerstone of Barack Obama’s unpopular reform legislation. While Mr Gingrich is the most rhetorically gifted of the 2012 candidates, his close association with deeply unpopular corporate interests represents a major problem in the coming weeks.

Evidence exists in certain states, however, that Mr Gingrich’s support has actually increased in the face of attacks from Mitt Romney and others. Having resurrected his political career from both his resignation from Congress in 1998 and earlier this year when his campaign staff abandoned him over his apparent lack of dedication to his candidacy, many voters see in Mr Gingrich a long-term viability that sets him apart from the rest of the field.

Newt Gingrich leaves a press conference following the conclusion of the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC (Political Action Committee) “Constitutional Conversation” in Hampton, NH on November 10, 2011.
 

Jon Huntsman takes questions during a campaign stop at Norton’s Classic Cafe in Nashua, NH on November 21, 2011.
 

While the influential conservative publication The Wall Street Journal has characterized Jon Huntsman’s economic policy as “the best in the field,” the former ambassador to China and governor of Utah has yet to play a major role in the campaign. Mr Huntsman’s primary competition is fellow Mormon and governor, Mitt Romney, but the two have only recently begun to tangle on foreign policy issues such as the American involvement in Afghanistan. Whereas Huntsman advocates a dramatic reduction in the number of troops serving in the country in order to concentrate American energy on domestic revitalization, Romney prefers to listen to the “commanders on the ground” and maintain troop levels.

The Huntsman campaign hopes their candidate’s strong fiscal record and foreign policy credentials will lend him credibility as the Republican frontrunners trade blows and reveal weaknesses in the final days before voting begins. Despite low name recognition nationally, recent polling in New Hampshire indicates that Huntsman’s “underdog” strategy that has focused almost exclusively on the state (Mr Huntsman did not actively campaign in Iowa) is starting to pay off, and he has gained ground in New Hampshire by increasingly converting disenchanted Romney supporters and Republican moderates to his cause.
 

Jon Huntsman poses with “Izak,” a pet goat owned by New Hampshire resident Bill Higgins, before a campaign stop in Dover, NH on October 30, 2011.

Ron Paul speaks to students at Keene State University in Keene, NH on November 21, 2011.

Ron Paul’s 2008 Presidential campaign captivated a newly energized cadre of libertarian voters and those 18-30 years of age. So far in this election his popularity has only increased, as the US's military entanglements drag on, and the size and cost of maintaining government programs and expenditures have become hot-button political issues. Compared to his Republican opponents whose differences on policy issues are relatively minor, Congressman Paul’s “non-interventionist” foreign policy platform, principled stand against the Federal Reserve and its practices, and advocacy for the return to the gold standard and the legalization of drugs have enthused a significant yet underrepresented minority within the Republican base.

Mr Paul’s grassroots network is widespread and influential. His supporters actively help orchestrate “money bombs” (in which his supporters donate large amounts of money within a short period of time), spread his message over social media platforms, and (in 2008) sponsored a blimp decorated with his name and campaign slogan to fly around the country.

Paul’s dramatic libertarian message embodies to many voters a progressive energy missing from the vast majority of contemporary politicians. Mr Paul finished third in the Iowa caucuses, and is currently polling at fourth in New Hampshire.

Ron Paul poses for a photo with young supporters after a campaign event in Hampstead, NH on October 28, 2011.
 
 

Rick Perry is embraced by two supporters after filing his candidacy papers at the New Hampshire State House in Concord, NH on October 28, 2011.

Rick Perry is the longest-serving governor of Texas, long an influential launching pad for national political careers, but running a national campaign has thus far proved to be a difficult task for him. Mr Perry has been tripped up by inconsistent performances in televised debates including an embarrassing and widely-publicized incident in which he asserted he wished to eliminate three federal agencies, but failed to recall which three he had in mind when questioned. To make the problem worse, the agency he couldn’t recall – the Department of Energy – is at the center of his campaign platform that claims jobs created in domestic energy production will help reinvigorate the American economy.

Despite garnering early attention, endorsements, and raising a significant amount of funds for his campaign in the summer months, Mr Perry finds himself a “has-been” in a campaign that has continually tossed out successive frontrunners. Mr Perry’s true strength is as a “retail” politician who captivates crowds at campaign events, and with expectations low, he can afford to take risks and pitch himself as an underdog. In the final weeks of December, Perry embarked on a non-stop bus tour back and forth across Iowa, signaling that his candidacy hinges on a strong showing in the state. He finished a distant fifth there, and after heading back to Texas to reassess his campaign's chances, looks to be coming back for another shot at Tuesday's New Hampshire vote.

 

Rick Santorum poses for a photo with a voter following a town hall meeting in Hudson, NH on November 26, 2011.

A former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum is an established voice in Republican politics, and his dogmatic stances on social issues attract the ardent support of a small number of strict social conservatives, especially in Iowa. With the endorsement of Iowa religious leaders, Santorum’s campaign likes to draw connections to Governor Mike Huckabee, whose 2008 campaign scored an upset victory in Iowa with the help of energized church congregations who succeeding in convincing caucus-goers to rally behind his campaign over the well-funded Mitt Romney. Mr Santorum lost the Iowa caucuses to Mr Romney by just eight votes.

Mr Santorum has campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, and despite previously unable to gain traction, his strong showing in Iowa has put him in fourth place – at 11 percent – among Republicans in the state, according to recent polling.
 
 

Buddy Roemer gestures during a morning visit to meet patrons of BeanTowne Coffee House in Hampstead, NH on November 11, 2011.

Buddy Roemer, a governor of Louisiana in the late 1980’s who switched allegiances from the Democratic to Republican Party, has dedicated his campaign to salient issues such as campaign finance reform that the frontrunners collectively ignore. In strict contrast with his opponents, who actively solicit large donations and encourage corporate fundraising through offshoot political entities, Mr Roemer refuses to accept donations larger than $100, saying that if elected he does not want anyone to feel they are owed political favors in return for their financial support. This stance has attracted a number of enthusiastic supporters to his cause, but he has been excluded from all nationally televised debates and is often overlooked by the news media, as well as by Republican leaders who seem to have moved away from his brand of conservatism.
 

Staff of presidential candidate Mitt Romney discuss placement of a campaign banner in preparation for a “town hall meeting”-style event in Peterborough, NH on November 19, 2011.
 

Text and photos: Luke Vargas