If the exit polls released Sunday evening prove accurate and the center-right Civic Platform (PO) leads the Polish government for a second consecutive term, local currency and stock markets are not expected to react.
“There would have been an impact if the [main opposition party] Law and Justice had won, but news of a PO victory was forecast by markets,” said Adam Narczewski, an analyst at brokerage house X-Trade Brokers.
PO promised to narrow the budget deficit, increase political stability and make economic reforms if it remained in power.
The party has a strong track record when it comes to looking after the economy – its principle achievement during its first four years in office was to guide Poland's economy to growth in 2009. In that year, all other European Union countries saw their economies enter recession.
Nevertheless, PO's promises and its ability to react to crises could be severely tested if the euro-zone crisis takes a turn for the worse.
As a result of the euro zone's recent troubles, the value of the złoty has plunged against the euro and dollar. This caused local-currency government bonds to fall 15.7 percent in dollar terms last quarter, the third-worst returns worldwide, Bloomberg reported. Moreover, interest payments on Polish government debt denominated in foreign-currencies have also become more expensive.
Poland needs to keep its public-debt-to-GDP ratio below 55 percent, or legally mandated austerity measures will come into force.
“To achieve the target, Poland must make sure the złoty is stronger than it is at present,” Mr Narczewski said, adding that the central bank and the Finance Ministry will play an important role in doing this.
A widening of the deficit, which could occur as a result of a weak złoty, could have a negative impact on the amount of EU funds Poland receives, and therefore on the strength of its economy. A key factor behind the country's 2009 economic growth was a massive inflow of EU aid.
Funding could be cut if Poland doesn't slash its deficit to the EU's limit of 3 percent in 2012. Poland's deficit stood at a hefty 7.9 percent last year.
From Warsaw Business Journal by Gareth Price
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