Some worry that Poland's visibility could be limited, now that the the Lisbon Treaty has given certain powers to President of the European Council Herman von Rompuy Courtesy of the European Council

Poland will take up the reins in the Council of the European Union on July 1, 2011, following Hungary and preceding Denmark. One year ahead of what some call the “biggest test” of its government since EU-accession negotiations, the country is preparing for the logistically challenging task of managing the internal affairs of the Council.

Since the Lisbon Treaty came into effect, the most recognizable areas of power – foreign affairs and representation outside the EU – have been transferred to the full-time president of the council and the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. However, underestimating the value of holding the rotating presidency may be a mistake.

According to the preliminary priorities accepted by the Council of Ministers in late July, Poland’s presidency will focus on starting negotiations on the EU budget for 2014-2020, EU joint defense, relations with the East (with the biggest emphasis on Poland’s flagship policy initiative – the Eastern Partnership) as well as strengthening the EU’s single market and common energy policy. These priorities provide an outline of what can be expected, with the actual agenda to be revealed a couple of weeks before the start of the presidency.

At a press conference after the priorities were accepted, Deputy Foreign Minister and Secretary for European Affairs Mikołaj Dowgielewicz stressed that the toughest and most important task ahead of the Polish government is to forge a preliminary agreement on the priorities of the EU’s 2014-2020 budget.

“If we succeed, we will be able to say that it was Poland’s success,” he said, stressing, however, that the government does not expect negotiations to end during the Polish presidency.

“[The budget negotiations] will be exceptionally difficult in the conditions of the economic crisis and I think they will extend into the presidency of Cyprus,” he said, referencing the third and final constituent of the “trio presidency” begun by Poland. “Together with the Cypriots and the Danes we will plan the negotiations so as to finish them by the end of 2012.” Talks may start during an EU summit in Warsaw planned for September 2011.

Limited powers

The changes to the presidency introduced by the Lisbon Treaty took away one of the most prominent powers previously reserved for the presiding country – foreign policy – and placed it in the hands of the high representative for foreign affairs (presently Catherine Ashton) and the permanent president of the council (Herman van Rompuy), limiting the rotating presidency’s visibility on the international stage.

The Polish presidency will be the fourth in the post-Lisbon period. The country is ambitious and keen to prove itself following the debacle of 2009, when the collapse of the Czech government effectively neutered its January-June presidency. But, after the “invisibility” of Prime Minister José Luis Rodíguez Zapatero during the Spanish presidency and Belgium’s assurances that it also plans to take a back seat to Ms Ashton and Mr Van Rompuy, Poland will have to accept its place in the post-Lisbon reality.

The emphasis on the Eastern Partnership – which aims to better the EU’s relations with Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia – indicates the country’s reluctance to excise foreign policy from its agenda altogether. Poland plans around 10 meetings between EU ministers and representatives of Eastern Partnership countries during its presidency; one of its priorities is the liberalization of visa policies for these nations.

Secretary for European Affairs Mikołaj Dowgielewicz is optimistic about the Polish presidency Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Dr Leszek Jesień, EU expert at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, warned against discounting the value of the presidency after the changes.

“As the presidency now needs to turn away from representing the EU outside and turn to internal matters – such as management of internal affairs and representing the Council of the European Union before other EU institutions, such as the European Parliament – I have heard some voices saying that the presidency is not important any more,” he said. “This is the first step to messing it up.”

Mr Dowgielewicz is optimistic about Poland’s visibility and has stressed that although the role in foreign policy is now limited, the presiding country still has a key role in the affairs of the Council. “Polish ministers will head nine out of the 10 configurations of the Council of the European Union [excluding the foreign affairs configuration headed by Ms Ashton],” he said.

“In cases concerning the most important issues – such as energy policy, the budget, the future of the common agricultural policy – it will be Polish ministers presiding over the discussions.”

Electoral uncertainties

Another concern is that parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn 2011, a couple of months into Poland’s presidency. This raises the specter of another lame-duck presidency (like the Czech Republic’s) occurring in Poland. The government stresses, however, that there is no cause for concern as the circumstances are different.

“Our election schedule is known, so there will be no surprise as in the case of the Czech Republic,” Mr Dowgielewicz. “The important thing is predictability. We will know much sooner when the elections will take place. Everything else can be prepared. The key thing will be to prepare for the eventuality that a minister will become engaged in an election campaign and decide who can stand in for them.”

Mr Jesień was more skeptical. “I’m not sure that the transition will be smooth,” he said. “A parliamentary election introduces additional tension – regarding the election campaign, the uncertainty of whether the present coalition will stay in power and also uncertainty about who will take over as the new minister.”

In his view, this unpredictability could prove a disincentive for some ministers or their subordinates, leading them to distance themselves from preparations for the presidency.

“As I understand, Minister Dowgielewicz is trying to limit this uncertainty. Such situations have happened in previous presidencies, but they require an efficient administration, an efficient transfer of power [to overcome].”

The government has yet to decide if the elections will take place as scheduled or whether they’ll be moved up to before the start of the presidency. According to Mr Dowgielewicz, the decision will be made this autumn.

State of preparations

The cost of holding the rotating presidency is estimated at zł.430 million. Around 1,200 officials from all the country’s ministries will be taking part and each ministry will also have an official responsible for relations with the European Parliament. Special training programs being conducted before the presidency include thousands of government officials, ambassadors, government clerks and even ministers.

Meanwhile, Hungary is working hard to facilitate its own presidency. So will 2011 be, in the words of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, “The year of Central Europe?”

Mr Jesień is cautiously optimistic about the present state of preparations in Poland. “The priorities are being worked on, cooperation with the other countries in the trio is developing, as is cooperation with Hungary,” he said. “Not many details have been revealed, but it seems alright.”

“We want to prepare well for the cooperation with the European Parliament,” stressed Mr Dowgielewicz.

Poland has watched the Spanish presidency closely: the country, said Mr Dowgielewicz, was sometimes “surprised” by the activities of the European Parliament.

“We want the Polish administration to undergo a mental revolution, because it is not prepared to work with the European Parliament. We look at the Parliament through the Polish politicians that are there, but we do not see it as a legislative body. We have to become aware of that because the European Parliament is flexing its muscles now and is trying to gain as much power as it can,” Mr Dowgielewicz said.

He added, “The presidency should be [working with the EP] from the very beginning of its term or even before.”

For more on the contemporary presidencies of the European Union, click here