Poland's economy wouldn't have done nearly as well in 2009, if it hadn't been for EU funds spent in the country, two new studies have reportedly found.

Simulations of the country's economic development absent the zł.16.8 billion in EU funds spent last year show that GDP growth would have been around 50 percent lower than it was, according to two analyses, one prepared by the Institute for Structural Research (IBS) and the other by an international team of researchers hired by the European Commission, reported Gazeta Wyborcza.

The IBS report put the figure at 1.2 percentage points less while the EC report put the figure at 0.8 percentage points less. Poland's GDP grew 1.8 percent last year.

The EC report also found that GDP, estimated at zł.1.34 trillion by Poland's statistical office, would have been lower by 3.2 percent, or zł.43 billion. It would have been lower by 4.6 percent (zł.61 billion), according to the IBS version.

The EU funds look set to have an even bigger impact on the economy in 2011. Minister of Regional Development Elżbieta Bieńkowska has announced that zł.60-70 billion in EU funds will be spent next year.

The reports predict that EU funds will add 0.7-0.9 percentage points to Poland's GDP growth in 2011 and 0.9 percentage points in 2012.

After infrastructure, innovation

“These predictions seem credible to me,” said Ursula Kryńska, an economist at Bank Millennium. “The NBP recently upgraded its 2011 growth forecast for Poland to 4.6 percent, and most of this will be driven by public spending, of which the EU funds are a very large part.”

“However, after 2013,when the needed infrastructure is in place, it will be crucial to concentrate on innovation, since only this can guarantee long-term growth for Poland,” she added. “The next 10 years will be key as we will be one of the youngest societies in Europe. After that we will start to be an older and older society so if we don't use this chance, it will probably never repeat itself.”

Spreading the wealth

The Regional Development Ministry has also made calculations on how much of the EU funds “return” to countries in the form of exports of items such as machinery.

On average, out of every €1 billion spent in Poland, €320 million goes back to countries that are net payers.

For every €1 spent, 97 euro-cents goes back to Austria. In the case of Germany, Poland's largest trading partner, the figure is 61 euro-cents.

German firms alone received contracts worth €868 million, thanks to EU fund distribution in Poland. The UK and France get the least, as only 13 euro-cents from every €1 they give returns to their shores.

Poland has so far spent a total of zł.26 billion in EU funds from the 2007-2013 EU budget period, for which it was allocated €60 billion.