GDP will grow by 3.5 percent, with average inflation at 2.3 percent in 2011, according to budget guidelines passed by the government in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 9.9 percent, while employment is predicted rise by 1.9 percent, according to the guidelines.

For the first time, the budget will be constructed according to the recently passed expenditure rule, which limits the rise of flexible expenses and new fixed expenses to the rate of inflation plus one percent. The budget deficit next year is projected to be lower than zł.40 billion. In the public sector, only teachers will see pay rises.

The guidelines also assume that the złoty will strengthen and that the Monetary Policy Council will raise interest rates.

Economists expect similar results for next year, although some stress that a drop in the unemployment rate to 9.9 percent from the present 11.6 percent will require higher economic growth than the government predicts.

However, according to Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Invest-Bank, too little has been revealed so far.

“The guidelines are close to the most probable scenario,” he told daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna. “But the devil is in the details. We have to wait until September to see the basis figures for the budget and then we will be able to see the structure of GDP growth.”

He added that he expected the budget plan to include a deficit of little over zł.36 billion.