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Will Hungarian troubles affect Polish economy?

19th July 2010
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After the EU and IMF suspended talks with Hungary on its funding program Saturday, worries spread that risk in one CEE country could cause investors to again flee other regional markets, such as Poland.

In the midst of the global economic downturn, despite Poland's robust economy, many investors fled the Polish currency and stocks after other regional economies crashed.

The Hungarian currency, the forint, took a beating Monday morning on the back of the news, plunging to a six-week low. In Poland, stocks started lower, with most WSE indices down at 10:45. The exception was the blue-chip WiG20 index, which was trading 0.13 percent higher.

While the złoty started out one percent lower, by mid-morning it had begun to retrace some of its losses.

“Obviously there has been some spillover, but for now it is surprisingly contained,” said Lars Christensen, head of emerging markets research for Danske Bank.

“In the short term the outlook for the złoty has worsened,” he said, adding that the longer term outlook for the złoty was still somewhat positive.

Industrial production data for Poland will be released Monday, but some analysts said that even a good result might not overcome the negative mood.

“[Monday's] data on industrial production is likely to show another good result, but we are negatively inclined to the Polish market due to the situation in Hungary,” read a BNP Paribas report quoted by Reuters. Producer prices data are also due out Monday.

In government bonds, Polish five-year and 10-year bonds lost ground Monday morning, while two-year bonds gained.

“The most important thing for bonds now is the złoty. If we move towards zł.4.10 per euro, then I don't think any bigger weakness awaits us today,” Reuters quoted a Warsaw analyst as saying.


From Warsaw Business Journal by Andrew Kureth


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