Will Jarosław Kaczyński return to his fiery rhetoric? Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Acting President Bronisław Komorowski of Civic Platform (PO) captured 45.7 percent of the vote to win the first round of Poland’s presidential elections, according to exit polls from SMG/KRC. As expected, the leader of Law and Justice (PiS), Jarosław Kaczyński, came in second, with 33.2 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) candidate, Grzegorz Napieralski, did better than expected, garnering 13.4 percent support. No other candidate won more than five percent of the vote.

Since no candidate crossed the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright victory, a second round of voting will be necessary. The vote will be held July 4.

Sources: SMG/KRC for TVN and TVN 24, National Election Commission

The two main candidates, Mr Komorowski and Mr Kaczyński, both tried to run campaigns that suited the somber national mood.

A different campaign

At the start of the presidential race, it looked as if Mr Komorowski could easily win in the first round. Initial polls put his support at levels approaching 60 percent, roughly twice as much as his closest rival, Mr Kaczyński, who started out with less than 30 percent support. Other candidates generally polled less than 10 percent support throughout the campaign.Mr Kaczyński’s strategy however, took many by surprise.

Mr Komorowski's campaign has stumbled at times Courtesy of Komitet Wrborczy B. Komorowskiego

Mr Kaczyński thus softened his rhetoric, leaving Mr Komorowski’s team scratching their heads. The Komorowski camp seemed at a loss for ideas, and the first two weeks of the campaign saw the PiS leader make steady gains.

Then the floods ...

In late May, Poland was hit by floods which lasted weeks, caused several deaths and wrought billions of złoty worth of destruction to property.

The Smolensk tragedy immediately took a back seat and the floods began to dominate the news. Mr Komorowski appeared at the flood sites with the popular Prime Minister Donald Tusk. They seemed in relative control of the situation. This helped Mr Komorowski’s campaign and slowed Mr Kaczyński’s rise in the polls.

On to the second round

Mr Komorowski has committed a few gaffes and hasn’t had a particularly brilliant campaign so far, but he has won the first round of voting and is the favorite to win the presidency. Voters on the left are expected to vote for him by a wide margin.

Source: SMG/KRC for TVN and TVN 24

Indeed, in his election night speech, Mr Komorowski thanked all his supporters and made reference to Mr Napieralski in an obvious gesture to his voters.

“I would like to congratulate Mr Napieralski on his great result and I hope this signals better times for the left, since it is essential to Poland,” said Mr Komorowski.

In his speech, Mr Kaczyński also congratulated Mr Napieralski on his result while saying that he hoped for a good debate with Mr Komorowski on the future of Poland before the runoff.

Mr Trzeciak expects the campaign to get more aggressive and negative before the second round of voting.

“Runoffs are always negative, as it is a choice between just two candidates. This campaign will be no different, although I expect it will be their campaigners doing all the dirty work, not the candidates themselves,” said Mr Trzeciak.