Ireland decides on the future of the Reform Treaty this week Courtesy of European Community/WBJ

This Friday Irish voters will hit the polling stations a second time to vote on their country’s ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, an agreement designed to reform the founding documents of the European Union, after having rejected it in June 2008. For the rest of the EU – and particularly for the legions of eurocrats in Brussels – this will be a long week.

The Irish government has chosen to revisit the referendum after securing guarantees from other EU members regarding issues that roused the passions of Irish citizens the first time around. These include the assurance that each EU member state will keep one representative in the EC, that Ireland will keep control over its own abortion laws and corporate tax, and that it will retain its military neutrality.

These concerns, along with a lack of knowledge and understanding about the treaty – professed by 42 percent of voters – swayed the 2008 vote, with 46.6 percent for Lisbon and 53.4 percent against it.

Second time’s the charm?

The experts contacted by WBJ were cautiously optimistic.

“I think that the outcome of the referendum will be positive, because the economic crisis has shown Irish citizens that European integration is the best security anchor,” said Paweł Świeboda from think tank demosEUROPA. He stressed, however, that anything could happen.

Małgorzata Bonikowska, an expert in European issues and head of consultancy Grupa Boss, agreed. “I believe that the vote will be ‘Yes,’ but you can never be sure,” she said. Ms Bonikowska also referenced the drubbing which Irish businessman Declan Ganley’s euroskeptic Libertas party took in the European Parliament elections this year, indicating that this was a sign that the mood has changed. Mr Ganley played a large role in turning Irish voters against Lisbon last year.

Opinion polls conducted this month have generally muddied the waters. Over the course of September, the percentage of poll participants indicating their intention to vote “Yes” has waxed and waned without a clear trend. Falling support for the Irish government has likely influenced opinions, since the government has been lobbying hard for the treaty. Also, despite previous assurances that he would not oppose the treaty if he did not manage to enter the European Parliament, Declan Ganley announced in mid-September that he would campaign against it anyway.

“With the waning of the crisis, the support for the Lisbon Treaty also wanes,” said Robert Grzeszczak, an assistant professor at the University of Warsaw’s European Law Department. “However, the supporters still have a considerable advantage over the staunch opponents [in the polls].”

With the exception of Sinn Féin, all parties in the Irish Parliament are campaigning for a “Yes” vote. Polish politicians have also gotten involved – Jerzy Buzek, the president of the European Parliament, and former President Lech Wałęsa visited Ireland separately this month to campaign for support for the treaty. The latter’s appeal was something of an oddity, however, as he appeared at Libertas political rallies during the European Parliament election campaign.