Courtesy of the CDC

Although Poland seems to have avoided the worst of the A(H1N1) virus pandemic, with over 70 infections so far – Spain, in comparison, has over 700 – experts agree that the A(H1N1) wave sweeping the southern hemisphere will hit Europe in autumn.

According to expert estimations, 10 to 20 or, in the worst case scenario, 30 percent of Poles could become infected with the virus between autumn and spring. That would result in 3.5-12 million cases in the country.

Dr Paweł Grzesiowski, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Nosocomial Infections of the National Medicines Institute, told Gazeta Wyborcza in an interview, that for now, a human carrier in Europe infects 1.5 people on average, but the figure might jump to two after children return to school and the virus will have more opportunities to spread.

Although the figures may be frightening, experts agree that the virus, with a 0.1 percent death rate in Europe, is milder than the common flu, which kills three people in every thousand. What is different, however, is that the A(H1N1) virus is completely new, the first one in years to jump the species barrier and start infecting humans.

There have been doubts as to whether Poland is prepared for the inevitable onset of the pandemic. Recently, a TVN24 reporter posing as a patient infected with the virus visited three hospitals in Warsaw and was not examined by a doctor, but directed to the infectious diseases hospital and advised to wear a face-mask if he planned to use public transportation.

Health Minister Ewa Kopacz, outraged by the hospitals’ reaction, threatened “consequences.” The National Health Fund has decided to fine the hospitals a total of zł.2 million.

One of the tools which doctors are using to help the body fight off the disease is Tamiflu, a prescription drug that stops the proliferation of the virus in cells. There are no official figures on how much of the drug is available in Poland.

According to the World Health Organization, the A(H1N1) virus has reached around 160 countries and is though to have killed around 800 people.