Anna Olejarczyk: Finance Minister, Jacek Rostowski has been quoted as saying that Polish banks are immune from the global market troubles. Are Polish banks really immune?
Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner: This is quite a new experience and we are not alone here, since it happened for other [banks]. And now, our banking system, as we may see from the domestic market, the system was rather conservative. So the new developments and different techniques of financial products are absent here. Of course, there are some relations between mothers and daughters and part of our banks are daughters of banks abroad, but mothers help daughters in difficulty, when there is any. From that point of view, the banking is stable here.
What kind of a message are governments sending to banks when they bailout their financial institutions?
Banks here have been under severe supervision after the beginning of the last year. Before that, and we say that the bank system was in order, they were guided by the strong hand, the hard hand of the national bank. So they had no time to escape from that, that's the first point. Secondly, as we are conducting some tightening modes in our policy, banks were invited, the financial bank of Poland to pay more attention to the credit. We have addressed the banking system at the beginning of 2007, so they have really tried to tighten up and they have really tightened up part of their policies. They are checking potential creditors better and they put more attention on mortgage credits.
The fact is that banks started to have some difficulty at the end of 2007, and we observed a re-transfer from the investment funds towards traditional banking deposits. Partly, this movement, in my mind, has saved people from the bigger turmoil at the recent moment. That's why there seems that there's no problem. Of course, there's as always, some lack of confidence in the market. What we try to persuade to the public is that the fundamentals are safe and there's no danger for our banks and that in the economy, the real economy, prospects are less optimistic than they have been in 2006-2007. But the worsening has already been predicted and there's nothing extra-ordinary out there.
Should Poland join world banks in the interest rate cut decision? Is there such a need in Poland?
We are awaiting for a report [to be released at the end of the month] and we are also looking at the situation in the international market and as far as we can judge the central banks efforts, for example the bank in England. Nothing has changed. So once again the question is how should we play? Should we follow our goals and follow our objectives and try to be prepared for the situation, or at least be within the frame? Or should we just manifest our cooperation with central banks and the European central bank system. Sometimes, a manifest of such scale may be a good idea. The question remains what will be the level of confidence in our banking system.
We here a lot about trust and the lack of trust in the banking sector. Do you think that the banks in Poland will find it increasingly more difficult to get deposits?
It seems to me that in the international situation we are in right now, banks should encourage people to keep their assets with them. This is why, it will be better for the banking system to keep a higher deposit rate. Once again, the question remains, should we, as it will be better for us, for banks, for our domestic market, to stabilize the interest rate. Frankly, it depends on the level of inflation, because we try to be prepared for the comparison with the Maastricht criteria. Since the beginning of the year until August, we have been just on the outer level of the band, now all the central banks from the Eurozone are saying that CPI is weakening, going down, but the question is, is our CPI reacting on the same rate or on the same rate but slower? If it's reacting slower, then we lost the opportunity to fulfill the Maastricht criteria.
The Polish złoty has weakened and fell against the Euro, does this infringe on Poland's plans to enter the Euro? Does this mean that the financial banking crisis has reached the Polish market?
The second problem or the second dilemma that we are facing, because up until the end of August the złoty has been depreciating and it was like an umbrella on our CPI. Now the situation has reversed and once again the question, how should we be saved? What would be the authority?
Is cutting the interest rates the answer?
I don't know.
Poland wants to adopt the Euro by 2012 and during yesterday's Sejm speech and budget proposal, Finance Minister Rostowski said that we're on the right track, even amongst market turmoil. Do you think that entering ERM2 zone in the beginning of 2009 is possible due to what is happening right now?
It is really difficult to imagine what will happen to the Eurozone and the Maastricht criteria in the future. Once again, sometimes it is necessary to wait a bit because it is really difficult to read out what is going on recently. And we also have a political dilemma: the constitution and the political majority to change the constitution and the political debate about the Eurozone. We need some more reflection on that and I personally need more reflection on that.
From Warsaw Business Journal by Anna Olejarczyk
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