By : Gregory Keller

   Half of domestic businesses have no intention of getting involved in e-commerce despite the fact that the number of Poles going on line is predicted to triple in the next five years, according to three recent surveys compiled on internet usage in Poland.

   Three separate, recently released studies - by International Data Corp. (IDC), Case market research firm and polling firm Pentor - shed some light on the often-contested size and makeup of the internet market in Poland.

   IDC's survey, released Nov. 10, concluded that by September Poland had roughly 1.45 million internet users. What exactly constitutes a "user," however, is up for debate. "We intentionally kept that vague," said Drew Weeks, an analyst with IDC in Prague.

   The study counted every single individual who had gone on line at least once in the past six months, he said. He added, however, that the segment of respondents who had only used the internet once during that period was "extremely small."

   IDC predicts that the total number of internet users will grow 28.3% annually over the next five years, bringing the total number of Polish users to about 5 million, or roughly 13% of the population, by 2004.

   Another recent study by Case helps to define who is actually using the internet. The survey, released in November, found that only 15% of Poles go on line every day, while 17% of users said they used the internet several times per week. A much higher 32% reported using the internet several times per month, while the remaining 35% said they used the internet less than once a month.

   The Case survey also found that 20% of Poles have computers at home, although that figure rises to nearly 60% among Poles with a university education. Of these, a surprisingly high 50% of all home-computer owners are internet users, according to IDC's study. IDC attributes this high rate to the free internet service offered by Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA).

   But it was the third report by Pentor, which came out in November, that contained the most startling revelation: 46% of Polish businesses said their company would never engage in e-business. The company polled 100 Polish companies to learn their opinions about the internet, specifically interviewing the companies' IT managers.

   The fact is, traditionally net-savvy IT directors whose opinions were polled might have skewed the results to the more optimistic side of the scale, said Lukasz Kowalik, a PR specialist at Intel Poland, which sponsored the survey. But he added, "They are the ones who drive the process" of taking businesses on line, so were judged as the best ones to speak on the subject.

   This makes it all the more surprising that nearly 50% of those IT managers said their company would never engage in e-business. Poor infrastructure is to blame for Polish IT managers' pessimistic outlook, Kowalik said. "We see this through the filter of existing barriers to access," he said.

   The Intel/Pentor report did present a bright side, however. Although only 14% of Polish companies engage in e-business now, 71% said they would use the internet more if connections were faster.