Poland is growing disenchanted with its ally across the Atlantic

Poland and the US share a history of mutual support. Lately those ties have been strained, however, as loyal participation in the US War on Terror has not yielded the benefits Poland had hoped for. This week Prime Minister Donald Tusk travels to Washington to bolster relations, but also to finally obtain the reciprocation that the Polish public demands.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk's meeting with US President George W Bush has brought Polish-US relations to the fore this week. According to Paweł Kowal, a former Deputy Foreign Minister in the Law and Justice (PiS) government, relations between the two countries are as strong as they've been in a long time, possibly ever.

Some might see little use in visiting a lame-duck president, as elections and a new administration are just around the corner. But Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski saw the Bush-Tusk visit as a routine meeting between allies. "President Bush is still in office, he still makes decisions. It is a matter of course to meet him," he told WBJ.

Missile shield

Polish-US relations are currently overshadowed by the issue of the proposed missile shield. The long-negotiated and controversial missile defense system was unwaveringly supported by the previous Polish administration. The Civic Platform (PO) government has proven a harder bargainer in negotiations to host the shield.

"PO has a more business-like attitude," said Zbigniew Pisarski, president of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, an NGO focusing on the promotion of democracy and betterment of Polish-US Relations.

The demand for aid from the US in return for the shield has political as well as security motivations. "It is necessary to convince Poland's public," said Grzegorz Kostrzewa-Zorbas, a political scientist and member of the Mazowiecki Voivodship Council. Recent surveys show that the majority of Poles are now against locating the shield in Poland. In Kostrzewa-Zorbas' opinion this is important, because the PO government "bases its activities on public opinion."

"In my opinion, the PO government's stance on the shield is terribly unclear," said Kowal. "Everyone from the government says something different, and each person says something different each time," he said. "We are misleading our ally," he added.

"This negotiation strategy makes more sense than the strategy pursued by the previous government," countered Pisarski. "The previous cabinet used to agree to all the terms first and later ask the US if there was any possibility that Poland could get something in return," he claimed. Kowal disagreed, saying that, "We should not play PR games over the missile shield. If PO had concealed information and decisions because it was part of their negotiation strategy, that would be alright, but I don't think this is the case."

Other defense matters

From the government's perspective, it's critical to get the US to agree to an additional layer of the shield consisting of short-range Patriot missiles. This has been criticized by PiS, which says the Patriot system is outdated, but others have applauded the move.

"If Israel and Japan have Patriots, why shouldn't Poland?" asked Pisarski. Poland's current anti-ballistic missile system, which consists of old Soviet missiles, has been in use since communist times and will only be operational until 2012. "We have to buy something, so why don't we get it with the shield?" he added.

"We have to insist that the shield has more layers, so all of Poland is safe," agreed Kostrzewa-Zorbas. In his opinion, the shield in its basic form would not be able to defend itself. Short-range Patriots are necessary to defend the shield itself or other important parts of the country, like the capital or strategic energy resources.

Another of Poland's negotiating points is financial support for the modernization of its army. Kostrzewa-Zorbas explained that, "Poland's government has a clear goal to strengthen the potential of Poland's army." This means equipment and armament other than just missiles. "The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, confirmed the US' support for the modernization of the Polish army," Sikorski said, referring to his visit to the United States earlier this year.

Election promises

The upcoming American election certainly complicates US-Polish negotiations. "[The candidates] can say anything, because nothing is binding," said Pisarski, noting that it would not be good for Poland to wait until November to close the deal. "The future is unknown. No matter who wins, the outcome [of the missile shield] will be uncertain. Negotiations could always be suspended for some reason," he said.

Kostrzewa-Zorbas said, however, that the current administration's position has limited meaning, especially since the Democrats could win the elections. "It is not sure who will be in charge after the election, but even if a Democratic candidate wins the election, both Obama and Clinton are for the shield, but under several conditions, like its inclusion into NATO's security system, which would be good for Poland," he said. All three main candidates, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and, in particular, John McCain, have said they would carry on talks over the missile shield if a deal is not struck before the election, he noted.

"The US is feeling the pressure of time more," Kostrzewa-Zorbas said. "Poland would have to speed up talks if the Democrats were against the shield, but they are not," he added. Asked which country was more anxious to come to an agreement, Foreign Minister Sikorski answered: "If you think we are in a hurry, you can ask the US Embassy. They will tell you that we are not at all."

Of course, the possibility remains that talks could break down altogether if, for example, the US did not agree to Poland's conditions. The foreign minister's take on this possibility was simple. "Their loss," he told WBJ.

In this case, Kostrzewa-Zorbas said, there would be no shield in Poland and the US would have to search for another location, like the Balkans or at sea. "However, the US will come to an agreement, since the Poland-Czech Republic location for the system is optimal," he explained. The Czech Republic, moreover, has already agreed in principle to host their part of the system, a radar base.

Afghanistan and Iraq

While Poland's missions in Afghanistan and Iraq remain important aspects of US-Polish relations, they have faded to the background for the moment. Both topics seem to be closed for discussion. "The US has already reconciled with the fact that Poland will withdraw its troops from Iraq. … In terms of politics, this matter is already closed and done," said Kostrzewa-Zorbas.

The two nations have also reached a consensus on the contingent in Afghanistan, with Poland agreeing to send more troops. The number of troops in the country will be increased to 1,600 in the next few months.

Both missions have shown that Poland is a loyal US ally. "Poland has always fulfilled the provisions of its alliance agreement, unlike other countries," said Pisarski. In Iraq, Poland's troops have stayed longer than initially agreed. "We have shown that Poland is a good ally when the US is in need. In Iraq, our sector was pretty well managed," said Sikorski. "However, we were disappointed. Polish companies did not get any construction or supply contracts," he added.

Even though the US said that the Iraqi authorities would decide on who received contracts, this doesn't appear to have been the case. A senior employee at Polish military contractor Bumar who wished to remain anonymous told WBJ that every time the firm applied for a project in Iraq, a Polish Ministry of Defense clerk would refer them to an American officer who would then deny the applications.

"It is typical for the US to boost its economy through war. In Iraq, there has been a US monopoly. They have not shared with their allies," said Pisarski. "The US makes a lot of deals and then does not fulfill the conditions," he said, noting Poland's purchase of F16 fighter planes and US sluggishness in concluding its offset agreement.

Visa Waiver Program

Experts said that the issue of Poland's entry into the US Visa Waiver Program should not be discussed any more, at least not before a new US President is elected. Foreign Minister Sikorski was critical of the fact that Poland has not yet been included into the program.

"We managed to persuade Canada to abolish visas. We are working on abolishing visas to the US," he said, adding that the situation has led to a worsening in relations. He also noted that because Poland was part of the EU, there was no point in having visas for Poles.

"There is no explanation at all for Poles requiring visas," Kowal ageed.

Canada's abolition of visas for Poles last month sparked hopes that the US would follow suit, but others are more pessimistic. "The fact that Canada has waived visas for Poles will have no impact on US policy," said Kostrzewa-Zorbas. "It is Congress' decision and it needs a new impetus. A new administration could create such an impetus," he said.

"In my opinion, the battle over visas has only had a symbolic character," said Pisarski. "We simply did not fulfill the procedural requirements, so we shouldn't humiliate ourselves anymore to get visas. The [Polish] government should focus on abolishing double taxation. It only exists on paper and nobody pays it, so why should we maintain it?" he asked.

Pisarski also suggested that an informational campaign could be launched under the title, "If you are sure that you won't get a visa, don't apply," which would be aimed at decreasing visa rejections. "If these people don't apply for some time, there is larger chance that they could go to the US without a visa soon," said Pisarski.

The future

In general, Polish-American relations seem to be healthy and cooperation on security issues is developing. If and when an agreement is reached on the missile shield, the accompanying document on a Polish-US strategic partnership is expected to create a legal framework for mutual ties and to confirm Poland's special place in US policy.